Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, who took office in May, immediately faced the daunting challenge of managing Iran-backed armed groups within Iraq. The urgency of this issue became apparent when, on July 27, drones launched from Iraq targeted oil facilities in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern province. While Iraqi armed factions denied involvement, coordinated strikes by the U.S. and Saudi Arabia soon followed, reportedly resulting in the deaths of at least 20 militia members. This unfortunate escalation brings to light the precarious position Zaidi finds himself in: how to contain militias that could draw Iraq into broader regional conflicts while simultaneously managing Baghdad’s delicate ties with both Washington and Tehran.
The Complexity of U.S.-Iraq Relations
Zaidi’s challenges were compounded shortly after his first state visit to Washington, a trip that appeared successful on the surface. The prime minister and his delegation signed approximately 50 memoranda of understanding, while U.S. President Donald Trump praised him as a prospective “great leader” in the Middle East. However, upon returning to Baghdad, Zaidi encountered a stark reality dominated by an oil-dependent economy, a fragmented political landscape, and the persistent rivalry between the U.S. and Iran. These factors will significantly impact his ability to govern effectively.
The immediate crisis’s escalation will depend on numerous factors, many of which are beyond Zaidi’s control. However, he has a unique opportunity that previous leaders lacked: the end of the U.S.-led coalition against the Islamic State marks a shift from a multilateral to a bilateral security relationship. This allows Baghdad greater autonomy in negotiating the terms of its security cooperation with Washington, aligning it more closely with Iraqi interests. Such a strategy could help Zaidi better manage Iraq’s regional dilemmas and bolster his government’s accountability at home.
The Dilemma of Armed Factions
Zaidi aims to be a departure from Iraq’s past leadership—he is a young businessman without the political baggage of veteran politicians who have historically dominated Iraq’s post-2003 landscape. Despite this potential for change, the complex and entrenched political system poses significant hurdles. Every Iraqi prime minister since 2005 has struggled to maintain effective relations with both the U.S. and Iran without allowing Iraq to become a battleground for their competing interests. While Iraq’s ties to both nations have sometimes proved beneficial, the escalating rivalry has often led to dire consequences.
The future effectiveness of Zaidi’s administration will heavily depend on how he navigates these internal and external complexities. His approach to the armed factions is incremental integration rather than a conventional disarmament strategy. While some factions have begun to yield control to Zaidi’s government, others—particularly those most closely aligned with Iran—remain resistant to any form of integration. This reluctance complicates the already intricate power dynamics within Iraq, as the government attempts to consolidate control over armed groups that possess their own ideological and operational objectives.
Strategies for Stability and Sovereignty
To mitigate these challenges, the Iraqi government should aim to bring more personnel under state command and enhance oversight of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), thereby clarifying the chains of command. Even if complete disarmament is unfeasible, reorganizing these factions into a coherent state structure could significantly strengthen the Iraqi government’s authority. Moreover, a more transparent separation of state-funded militias from those pursuing independent agendas would help Baghdad manage future regional escalations.
The U.S. can play a supportive role by continuing to engage in military cooperation with both Iraqi federal forces and the Kurdistan Regional Government. By reinforcing Iraqi military institutions, Washington can help create a more stable environment while avoiding pressure for immediate disarmament, which risks exposing the weaknesses of the Iraqi state. Instead of pushing for an anti-Iran stance, the U.S. should focus on helping Iraq establish diverse regional relationships to foster strategic autonomy and reduce dependency on any one external actor. This approach, while gradual, has the potential to stabilize Iraqi governance in the long term.