Israel’s political landscape is bracing for significant upheaval as far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich faces a critical election on October 27. His recent decision not to penalize ultra-Orthodox Jews avoiding military service has sparked outrage among West Bank settlers, a group crucial to his support. This predicament highlights the complexities Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu must navigate to maintain cohesion within his contentious coalition during Israel’s first election since the onset of the Gaza war.
Smotrich’s Political Struggles
Bezalel Smotrich, a lifelong resident of the Israeli-occupied West Bank, leads the Religious Zionism party, which staunchly opposes a Palestinian state. His ideology is grounded in biblical claims to the land stretching from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea. However, several Western countries have barred him from entry due to allegations of inciting violence against Palestinians, a claim he and the Israeli government vehemently deny. Smotrich, while less confrontational than his counterpart, Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, still advocates aggressively for settlement expansion and has garnered admiration from many in the settler movement.
Despite progressive developments in settlement policies, Smotrich made a strategic misstep when he backed legislation that would shield ultra-Orthodox Jews from military conscription. This decision has alienated some previous supporters, leading them to voice their discontent openly. Many see the implications of such policies as detrimental to the future viability of the Israeli military.
A Coalition in Turmoil
Religious Zionism supporters, often characterized by their “knitted kippahs,” intertwine their religious beliefs with a strong sense of nationalism. This has created friction with ultra-Orthodox groups, whose youths traditionally prioritize religious studies over military service. The inherent tension within the coalition—between those who fervently advocate for the draft and those seeking exemptions—has become increasingly palpable, especially after a 2024 Supreme Court ruling declared exemptions based on religious education unlawful.
Last month, a bill aimed at preventing the arrest of ultra-Orthodox draft dodgers was passed by parliament but quickly halted by the Supreme Court. Smotrich has expressed the belief that while ultra-Orthodox individuals should be drafted, coercive measures would only worsen societal divisions. He asserts the need for a more diplomatic approach, prioritizing consensus over conflict.
Support Eroding
Despite remaining in a position of power to advance his agenda, Smotrich’s popularity is waning among those who once viewed him as a representative of their shared values. Critics assert that he has compromised the principles of Religious Zionism in favor of aligning with ultra-Orthodox interests. Many individuals, particularly those who have experienced the strain of military service, find his stance increasingly untenable.
The support for his party, which holds seven seats in Israel’s 120-seat parliament after a combined list with Ben-Gvir in 2022, appears to be dwindling. Recent polls suggest Religious Zionism may struggle to secure a minimum of 3.5% of the vote necessary for representation in the upcoming elections. With every vote likely to play a pivotal role in shaping Israel’s future government, Netanyahu may need to explore new alliances on the far right to ensure Smotrich remains a critical player in the political sphere.
As the election approaches, Smotrich’s political survival hinges on his ability to navigate the turbulent waters of Israeli politics while balancing the conflicting interests within his coalition. The outcome will not only affect his future but will also shape the political landscape in Israel for years to come.