Saudi Arabia currently faces dual pressures that threaten its national security. On one front, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has obstructed its main export route in the Gulf, while on another, Houthi forces have imposed blockades in the Red Sea, further complicating Riyadh’s trade routes. Such disruptions could have dire implications for the kingdom’s oil exports; reports indicate a drop to as low as 670,000 barrels daily from the Egyptian port of Sidi Kerir compared to the previous 4 million through Yanbu. Moreover, the Houthis have targeted Saudi-linked vessels and have claimed assaults on vital installations, highlighting significant threats to both maritime access and energy infrastructure.
Lessons from Previous Engagements
Saudi Arabia’s military strategy should draw lessons from its experiences between 2015 and 2022, during which it initially sought to curtail Houthi expansion. However, this long-term intervention led to a costly quagmire, ultimately failing to achieve its core political objectives. Analysts describe Riyadh as “stuck” in a scenario where its military involvement has become disproportionate to the original aims. This overcommitment has only further empowered the Houthis and solidified their alliance with Iran. Therefore, Saudi Arabia requires a strategy that enhances security without re-creating the errors of its past military escalations.
A Shift in Military Strategy
While a major ground offensive might seem to offer an immediate solution to Riyadh’s security concerns, it risks transforming the military landscape. The Houthis have adapted to asymmetric warfare techniques, leveraging their strength in guerrilla tactics rather than facing Saudi forces head-on. This strategy allows them to inflict significant costs on Saudi Arabia without engaging in conventional battles. Insights from similar conflicts, such as the U.S. experience in Afghanistan, reveal that even overwhelming tactical victories do not always translate into strategic success if guerrilla factions can persistently regroup and launch new attacks.
Empowering Local Forces
A balanced approach could involve limited, Yemeni-led military action tailored to neutralize immediate threats to Saudi territory and energy resources. By focusing on the sources of Houthi capabilities—including missile launch sites and maritime infrastructure—while simultaneously empowering local Yemeni forces, Saudi Arabia stands to benefit in multiple ways. This strategy avoids deepening Saudi involvement in regional conflicts and helps mitigate risks from Iran by limiting direct confrontation. Yemeni forces, possessing vital local knowledge and familiarity with the terrain, are better positioned to conduct the ground campaign effectively.
Timing and Strategic Calculations
According to regional experts, the timing of military action should align with any sign of weakening in Iran’s influence. As Iran faces declines in its organizational and military capabilities, Saudi Arabia can exploit this moment to act decisively. This involves delaying any major ground invasion until the Houthis are significantly deprived of their external support. A well-timed response could facilitate a more favorable cost-benefit scenario for Saudi Arabia, similar to the Turkish experience in Syria, where changes in external power dynamics opened up new opportunities to confront armed groups previously seen as untouchable.
In conclusion, Saudi Arabia should prioritize a strategy of restraint that preserves its military resources while addressing immediate threats effectively. Although significant ground intervention promises potential gains, it risks escalating conflicts into guerrilla warfare and overextending military commitments. Instead, a Yemeni-led strategy allows Riyadh to confront urgent threats, keep the main military burden on local forces, and avoid unnecessary escalations with Iran—capitalizing on regional shifts when the conditions are most favorable for decisive action.