Michael Ratney, the former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia, expressed considerable aggravation regarding the current situation in the kingdom. He pointed out that despite Saudi Arabia’s historical animosity towards Iran, the ongoing conflict is one that the Saudis never anticipated. The repercussions of the war have not only materialized but have also brought their most dreaded fears into reality.
### Saudi Arabia’s Position in a Shifting Landscape
While the Saudi government did not publicly address the matter, an uninformed source from the kingdom divulged that Saudi Arabia is committed to safeguarding its interests and will collaborate with allies, notably the United States, to maintain navigational freedom in the Red Sea. This stance is particularly significant against the backdrop of escalating tensions in the region.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has endeavored to transform Saudi Arabia into a forward-looking nation through extensive social and economic reform. His vision of a reformed Middle East was severely undermined following the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, which initiated a series of conflicts. The U.S. and Israeli military responses targeted Iran, prompting retaliatory strikes involving missiles and drones aimed at Saudi Arabia and Gulf states. This situation not only hampered Saudi oil and gas exports but also reverberated across the global economic landscape.
### Increased Threats from Regional Adversaries
Saudis managed to mitigate some dire outcomes by routing oil through pipelines across their territory to the Red Sea, allowing for continued exports to Europe and Asia. However, renewed conflict with the Houthis in July led to significant setbacks. The rebels’ announcement of a blockade on Saudi shipping and an uptick in attacks marked a dangerous escalation in hostilities.
In recent days, the Houthis captured the port city of Mokha and a strategic Red Sea island from Saudi-backed forces, significantly enhancing their capacity to obstruct Saudi shipments in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The kingdom has even halted oil pipeline operations due to drone assaults originating from neighboring Iraq, where Iranian-supported militias are actively involved. Reports indicate that such strikes have drastically reduced Saudi oil exports, plummeting from 3.4 million barrels per day in June to just 128,000 by August.
### Limited Options Ahead for Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia’s military endeavors against the Houthis since 2015 have borne little fruit, with the war claiming approximately 150,000 lives and bringing Yemen to the brink of famine at various points. Experts suggest that the kingdom’s recent experience and inability to achieve a decisive victory increase the pressure to take action. Yet, each available response carries high stakes and unpredictable results.
Options for Saudi Arabia include ramping up military measures against the Houthis, but that could result in intensified Houthi retaliation against critical infrastructure. Alternatively, the kingdom could pursue a diplomatic resolution with the Houthis or their Iranian backers. Nevertheless, the Houthis have laid down conditions that would empower them long-term, and Iran appears disinterested in stabilizing the area without substantial concessions from the U.S.
### The Role of U.S. Support
Historically, Saudi Arabia has relied on American security assurances, but those commitments seem to be in flux. The previous U.S. administration’s insufficient response during past crises indicated deteriorating relations. Recent military actions against Iran lacked coordination with Gulf allies, prompting concerns regarding the U.S.’s ability to adequately protect them. With the U.S. focused on the Strait of Hormuz, engaging in further military actions in Yemen appears unpopular and politically risky as election cycles approach.
Michael Ratney articulated that achieving Saudi objectives without firm U.S. backing is fraught with difficulty, given today’s complex geopolitical climate. He suggested that the Biden administration is hesitant to deepen involvement, underscoring a crucial inflection point for Saudi Arabia as it navigates a landscape fraught with challenges and few viable solutions.