In a recent policy analysis by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, experts suggest that the U.S. should consider imposing targeted sanctions against former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki and Hadi Al-Ameri, the leader of the Badr Organization. This recommendation arises from ongoing concerns regarding these leaders’ resistance to disarming armed factions in Iraq, which undermines federal efforts to regain control over weaponry in the region.
Continued Obstacles to Disarmament
The analysis, authored by former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State David Schenker, highlights the stubborn positions of Al-Maliki and Al-Ameri, who together hold 47 parliamentary seats within the ruling Coordination Framework. Instead of fostering state security, they appear to be more interested in maintaining their own influence, especially following recent drone attacks aimed at energy infrastructure in the region. Notably, on September 10, Iranian-backed armed groups within the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) launched a drone offensive targeting critical links between Saudi Arabia and the Red Sea, causing significant disruptions.
This aggressive action evidently contradicted Al-Maliki’s previous assurances to minimize factional tensions and respect Baghdad’s governance. The failure of the Coordination Framework to effectively manage these threats exposes the inadequacies of their governance and raises questions about their claims of having de-escalated risks in the region.
Consequences of Inaction
Schenker emphasizes that the U.S. narrowly avoided designating Al-Maliki during the Trump administration. He cautions that if the current U.S. approach continues to favor ambiguous containment models similar to those applied in Lebanon with Hezbollah, it will be imperative to impose financial sanctions on both Al-Maliki and Al-Ameri. These actions are crucial to deterring the normalization of armed factions that resist disarmament and threaten Iraq’s sovereignty.
As Prime Minister Ali Faleh Al-Zaidi approaches his self-imposed deadline to disarm these factions, the challenges keep mounting. The forthcoming completion of the U.S.-led coalition’s mission in Iraq sharply aligns with this timeline, making the domestic situation more pressing.
Division Among Factional Groups
While some factions like Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq and Kata’ib Imam Ali have shown willingness to negotiate disarmament, hardline groups such as Kata’ib Hezbollah and Harakat Hezbollah Al-Nujaba remain fiercely opposed. In private meetings reportedly backed by high-ranking Iranian officials, these factions have laid down non-negotiable demands, complicating the disarmament process even further. They have proposed initiatives such as storing heavy weaponry in Iran or maintaining private arms caches, while also resisting any demands that minimally challenge their current power structure.
Strategic Recommendations for U.S. Policy
To bolster Baghdad’s authority and ensure the protection of vital energy corridors, the Washington Institute calls for a series of targeted actions rather than broad economic sanctions. These include:
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Targeted Military Deterrence: Collaborate with Saudi Arabia to identify and neutralize operational leaders within Kata’ib Hezbollah and similar factions, while providing Iraqi security forces with the intelligence needed to dismantle launching cells.
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Vetting Counter-Terrorism Forces: Assist in scrutinizing the leadership of Iraq’s Counter-Terrorism Service to protect this critical institution from factional influences.
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Funding Pressure: Apply financial pressure on Iraqi bureaucrats who facilitate substantial federal budget allocations—approximately $3.6 billion annually—to factions classified as terrorist groups by the U.S.
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Kurdish Defense Support: Reinforce interim security and financial support for the Kurdistan Regional Government, addressing vulnerabilities that may arise from shifting U.S. military support dynamics.
These strategies aim to reclaim control over armed factions and solidify the U.S. position in the region, all while reinforcing Iraq’s sovereignty and stability.