Baghdad and Washington have reached a significant consensus regarding the recent U.S. withdrawal from Iraq, marking a pivotal point in the two nations’ relations. This move has been praised by U.S. President Donald Trump, who emphasized its orderly nature and distinguished it from the chaotic departure from Afghanistan. Iraqi officials are heralding this withdrawal as a critical step toward full sovereignty.
Long History of U.S. Involvement in Iraq
Trump has consistently conveyed his belief that the United States should not have been involved in Iraq. He remarked, “It’s been a long time with very poor decision-making that led us into this quagmire from the start. For too many years, this situation dragged on.” The American military’s intervention in Iraq commenced in 2003, following the invasion that ousted Saddam Hussein.
During nearly two decades of engagement, numerous American lives were lost while battling Sunni insurgents and Iranian-backed factions. The U.S. formally departed in 2011 but returned in 2014 to counteract the rise of ISIS. The latest exit is perceived to bring an end to a prolonged U.S. presence in the region, spanning approximately 23 years.
Iraq’s Shift Towards Self-Sufficiency
Iraq itself perceives the U.S. withdrawal as a momentous achievement. Iraqi security forces have been actively combating ISIS on their own for several years. The U.S. significantly reduced its military operations against ISIS in Iraq as early as 2018, transitioning to a more supportive role rather than direct engagement in combat. Assistance continued for Iraqi forces, including the Kurdish Peshmerga.
Since 2019, Iranian-aligned militias have ramped up attacks against U.S. forces, prompting a U.S. airstrike that killed IRGC commander Qasem Soleimani in 2020. In response, American forces began consolidating their presence, limiting their numbers to strategic locations, notably in the Kurdistan Region, to reduce vulnerability.
The Aftermath and Evolving Dynamics
While the U.S. has vacated many bases, Iranian-backed militias have continued to target American personnel, with attacks reportedly increasing this year. Iran may perceive the U.S. exit as a significant victory, particularly following years of planned withdrawals. Approximately 1,500 U.S. personnel have now departed from Erbil and other locations, significantly altering the military landscape.
In a show of defiance, recent reports indicate that Iranian drone strikes have targeted Kurdish positions in northern Iraq, highlighting ongoing tensions. This escalating conflict raises questions about whether Iranian assaults will intensify, diminish, or maintain their current frequency. Iran aims to keep Kurdish dissident factions in check while ensuring that Iraq does not fall into reliance on external support, notably from the U.S.
The Challenge of Disarmament
The U.S. is advocating for Iraq to manage and disarm Iranian-affiliated militias. Iraqi leadership acknowledges that achieving this goal through force remains unrealistic. The government has been pursuing strategies to place militia weapons under state control, a process fraught with challenges. Many militias, integrated into the Popular Mobilization Forces, maintain dual identities as both official forces and informal armed groups, often complicating disarmament efforts.
Prime Minister Ali Al-Zaidi has set a deadline for the disarmament of these factions, yet various groups continue to impose conditions, complicating compliance. Some factions have called for the withdrawal of Turkish forces from northern Iraq, while others push for the disbanding of Kurdish Peshmerga. These multiplicative demands underscore the complexities involved in stabilizing Iraq and achieving long-term peace.