Saudi Arabia is gearing up for a significant military operation against Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen. This offensive, which could be initiated in the near future, aims to reclaim territory along the strategically vital Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The operation may involve more than 100,000 Yemeni troops and could either target specific coastal areas or expand into a broader multi-front campaign.
Potential Scale and Timing of the Offensive
Recent reports indicate that Saudi Arabia is contemplating a limited assault around Bab el-Mandeb or a more extensive military initiative. This potential offensive could commence within weeks, based on intelligence from various sources that include officials knowledgeable about the preparations. Depending on the situation, an estimated 100,000 Yemeni forces could be activated, with timing speculated between the next week and after the U.S. midterm elections in early November.
The immediate aim of this military movement is to offset the Houthi forces’ swift territorial gains from last month, where they advanced down the Red Sea coastline and took control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This strategically located strait serves as the southern exit for the Red Sea and is crucial for international shipping between the Mediterranean and Asia, highlighting its increased relevance amid ongoing instability in the region.
Challenges Facing Yemeni Forces
A prominent challenge facing Saudi Arabia is the fragmented state of the Yemeni forces involved in the anticipated ground offensive. These forces consist of various factions, each armed and trained differently, which complicates their coordination. Yemen analyst Mohammed Albasha notes many of the anti-Houthi groups remain unprepared for a sustained military campaign, hindered by internal divisions and competing agendas. Tensions have escalated, especially after UAE-backed southern factions clashed with Saudi-supported forces last winter, further fracturing the anti-Houthi coalition.
Ali Shihabi, a political analyst close to Saudi government circles, echoes these concerns by stressing the importance of competent local forces for the campaign’s success. This operation will likely require these troops to transition from defensive strategies to aggressive maneuvers to reclaim lost territory effectively.
Role of Saudi Arabia’s Allies
Saudi Arabia’s allies are primarily offering support in the form of intelligence and military equipment rather than direct combat involvement in Yemen. The United States, a key ally, is providing military advisers and essential targeting intelligence for Saudi air operations. However, President Trump has previously declined requests for direct U.S. military intervention, compelling Saudi Arabia to assume full responsibility for the air campaign.
A significant aspect of Saudi security strategies is the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, which includes Pakistan and Turkey. This agreement stipulates that an armed strike against any signatory will be regarded as an attack on all parties involved. While Pakistan has hesitated to deploy combat troops to Yemen, it has sent advanced air-defense systems and stationed thousands of troops within Saudi territory for border security and missile interception.
Turkey, too, has contributed by supplying military equipment, and Turkish drones are reportedly active in the region. France has also stepped in with defensive systems and troop support aimed at safeguarding Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Yanbu. Recent gatherings among military chiefs from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey emphasize ongoing cooperation in addressing the precarious situation in Yemen.
In conclusion, as Saudi Arabia prepares for a military offensive against the Houthis, the success of the operation will hinge on the unity of Yemeni forces and the effective support of allied nations. The outcome could reshape the power dynamics in the region, impacting critical shipping routes and geopolitical stability.