Saudi Arabia is anticipated to maintain its military stance against the Iran-backed Houthi militia following a recent attack on Riyadh’s airport that resulted in 12 fatalities and over 300 injuries. Regional analysts suggest that the kingdom is likely to escalate its military offensives, marking a significant development in the ongoing conflict.
Significance of the Recent Attack
The recent assault represents a notable intensification of the Houthis’ campaign against Saudi Arabia, revealing the kingdom’s susceptibility to assaults on civilian targets. Bernard Haykel, a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, pointed out that Saudi authorities have long recognized the Houthis’ operational capabilities, which have been further bolstered by Iranian support and affiliation with Iraqi Shia militias. He noted, “They’re not going to succumb to the Houthis because of this incident.”
Saudi Arabia’s Military Options
Haykel indicated that Riyadh now faces a critical decision: negotiate with the Houthis or amplify military operations against them. He anticipates a push towards the latter, emphasizing a stronger reliance on Yemeni forces aligned with the Saudi goal of displacing the Houthis. “I think they’re going to ramp up against the Houthis,” he asserted, highlighting the kingdom’s resolute response.
The attack signifies broader implications for Saudi Arabia, which has sought to mitigate the risks associated with the regional confrontation with Iran. Haykel elaborated that while Riyadh has historically endeavored to avoid escalating armed conflicts, the latest developments necessitate a reevaluation of their defensive measures. “They realize that they have to pay a price,” he remarked.
Shift in Civilian Targeting Strategy
The scale and boldness of the recent attack have surprised some analysts. Michael Ratney, a former U.S. Ambassador to Saudi Arabia, noted the shock it generated among Saudi officials, despite prior awareness of the Houthis’ military potential. Traditionally, the group has concentrated on military and energy infrastructure, and targeting civilian airports exemplifies a dangerous shift in their strategy. Ratney remarked that this is “a significant escalation for the Houthis,” underscoring the gravity of targeting civilian sites.
The attacks create a precarious environment for Riyadh, which is focused on military goals in Yemen while grappling with the risk of additional retaliatory strikes. Ratney emphasized that Saudi Arabia’s immediate military objective is to assist the Yemeni forces in reclaiming critical positions along the coastal areas captured by the Houthis, specifically near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Saudi leaders are likely to contemplate means of de-escalating tensions once immediate military objectives are achieved.
Concerns About American Support
As the Saudi campaign unfolds, concerns about the adequacy and scope of American military support loom large. Experts indicate a growing disillusionment among Saudi leaders regarding the limitations of U.S. assistance, particularly amidst ongoing deployments across the region. Haykel explicitly stated the disappointment concerning American preparedness to counteract the threat posed by the Houthis and Iran.
Ratney noted some behind-the-scenes assistance from the U.S., including intelligence sharing and operational planning; however, there’s a clear preference for more direct American involvement in airstrikes. Both experts agree that while there is a desire for stronger cooperation with the U.S., escalating military operations could provoke significant ramifications, particularly targeting civilian infrastructure. As they navigate this complex landscape, both Saudi Arabia and the United States seem committed to averting further conflict escalation.