Small units of ISIS are reportedly advancing from northern Iraq towards Baghdad’s outskirts, where they aim to arm their members and reorganize fighters who previously pledged allegiance to the group. This information comes from a source within Iraq’s Federal Intelligence Agency (FIA), who spoke with MBN but preferred to remain anonymous due to the sensitivity of the matter.
Movement towards Baghdad Belt
According to this source, small ISIS groups have been infiltrating the Baghdad Belt area for several weeks, seeking reinforcements from rural villages in Salah al-Din Province. They utilize unmonitored dirt roads, known locally as “naysmiya” roads, which traverse through agricultural lands and orchards, enabling them to avoid detection. This sudden maneuvering indicates that ISIS is trying to regroup following the U.S. troop withdrawal on September 30. While some officials maintain that ISIS does not pose a significant threat, the potential for their resurgence cannot be ignored.
The small units generally comprise three to five members. The FIA source reported that their primary objectives are to secure weapons, recruit new followers, and reconnect with individuals who had distanced themselves from the group. Intelligence officials have only identified three of these units, with some members remaining unknown to Iraqi intelligence agencies. The lack of reliable surveillance has created challenges in monitoring their activities.
Sustained Operations and Local Intelligence
The insights about ISIS movements stem from thermal-camera footage and eyewitness accounts from farmers who have observed armed individuals moving in the fields at night. The source estimates that Iraqi nationals constitute around 90% to 95% of these fighters, with no indications that foreign or Arab fighters are involved. Reports linking ISIS to a series of killings in Tarmiyah, a region north of Baghdad, show an alarming trend, though the motivations behind these attacks remain unclear.
Current intelligence suggests ISIS is employing a “gang system” approach, operating in low-security areas and steering clear of direct confrontations. Their strategy appears to consist of evasion rather than open threats, focusing instead on counteracting any security operations aimed at them. The context of the international coalition’s withdrawal from Iraq has triggered memories of past escalations, especially following the 2011 pullout that led to a dramatic rise in ISIS activity, culminating in the group capturing vast territories in 2014.
Military Landscape and Future Implications
The conclusion of the coalition’s military mission reignites concerns about the capacity of Iraqi forces to manage the ISIS remnants and prevent them from exploiting security gaps. Lt. Gen. Saad Maan, head of Iraq’s Security Media Cell, expressed that while ISIS is closely monitoring the troop withdrawal, he believes the group lacks the capability to regain lost territory. According to Maan, the group’s members are limited, but they leverage the challenging geography of valleys and mountains in regions like Zagheitoun, Wadi al-Shay, and the Hamrin Mountains for their operations.
Even after the U.S. withdrawal, there have been reports of increased violence attributed to ISIS in areas like Kirkuk. A notable incident occurred on October 5, targeting Iraqi forces in the Hawija district, which resulted in casualties. Fadel Abu Ragheef, a security expert on terrorism, commented that although ISIS is conducting limited operations, the frequency of these attacks is on the rise, particularly in Kirkuk and Salah al-Din provinces.
In summary, ISIS has not entirely vanished; while assessments indicate that their activities are at relatively low levels, they still possess the capability to execute limited attacks, including kidnappings and assaults on security forces and civilians. The challenge ahead will be to monitor and counteract these dispersed cells as Iraq navigates its evolving security landscape.