The ongoing conflict in the Black Sea has escalated tensions, particularly following the recent sinking of two merchant ships with Turkish ownership. Sadly, this event has led to two confirmed fatalities and ten sailors still unaccounted for. As NATO’s most prominent ally in the region, Turkey’s response has been markedly cautious, raising questions about why the nation seems reticent to name the culprits behind these attacks, especially when the conflict has direct implications for its own interests.
Turkey’s Strategic Stance on Black Sea Security
Turkey is now urging both Moscow and Kyiv to cease drone strikes, but the complexity of the situation is profound. Ukraine heavily depends on maritime routes for its economic sustenance, with an astonishing 90% of its agricultural exports transported by sea. Additionally, Turkey holds a pivotal role in controlling access to the Mediterranean, while Bulgaria relies on maritime routes for exporting goods and obtaining essential energy resources. Despite Russian military actions, Ukrainian ports managed significant cargo exports, totaling 82.2 million tonnes in 2025, with vital trade flowing through the Bosphorus and Bulgarian ports. Disruptions to shipping channels thus endanger the economic stability of these nations.
Ankara’s objective appears twofold: stopping the attacks while maintaining its influence as a mediator in the Black Sea. Analyst Ruslan Trad from EUalive.net suggests that Turkey’s hesitance stems from its desire to uphold the authority resulting from its control over the straits. The Montreux Convention governs naval activity in the region, and Turkey has applied wartime limitations to warships from both conflict sides. This stance has effectively curtailed the bolster of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, indirectly aiding Ukraine while preventing non-Black Sea NATO allies from entering the region.
Balancing Relations Between Russia and Ukraine
Despite its support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity and military aid, Turkey continues to foster economic ties with Russia. Trad highlights Ankara’s need to navigate complex relationships while positioning itself as an essential player to both Kyiv and Moscow. Turkey’s initiatives, including proposals for safe maritime corridors, reflect a strategic approach that prioritizes regional stability, emphasizing that security in the Black Sea is best assured by coastal nations. In a press conference with Romanian Foreign Minister Oana Țoiu, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan underscored that littoral states should take the lead in establishing security.
The Turkish policy contrasts with a broader perspective shared by analysts such as Mustafa Aydın and Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, who argue that Turkey prioritizes regional stability over alignment with EU and NATO policies due to its cautious approach toward Russia. They caution that if Moscow emerges victorious from the conflict, it could pose a future threat to Turkish interests.
The Role of Intelligence and Military Assets
Turkey maintains a robust surveillance strategy to address the complexities arising from recent maritime incidents. As part of its Operation “Black Sea Harmony,” Turkey has deployed various military assets, including frigates, submarines, and coastal surveillance drones. These capabilities could aid in identifying the entities responsible for the recent attacks.
Diplomatic engagements have characterized Turkey’s approach, as evidenced by President Erdoğan’s recent phone call with Putin following the sinkings. Although Turkey has not officially attributed blame for the attacks, it continues to advocate for direct communication between Moscow and Kyiv to address not only security concerns but also rising food and energy prices linked to grain trade.
Regional Responses and Future Implications
As the situation develops, Sofia is seeking a collective EU and NATO response, acknowledging that security in the Black Sea extends beyond regional borders. Bulgarian Foreign Minister Velislava Petrova emphasized the need for technical assistance and improved surveillance amid growing concerns for shipping safety.
Recent discussions by Bulgarian Defense Minister Dimitar Stoyanov underline the need for enhanced surveillance and intelligence sharing among Turkey, Romania, and NATO allies. Experts such as Thomas de Waal suggest that Kyiv’s Western allies should consider deepening cooperation with Ankara to fortify Bulgarian and Romanian naval forces.
While Turkey continues to assert its leading role in Black Sea security, recent attacks challenge its capacity to ensure safe maritime passage. For Bulgaria and Romania, Turkey’s measured approach poses risks that directly impact their maritime security and economic interests, illustrating the delicate balance of power and diplomacy in this strategic region.