Iranian officials are strategically prolonging negotiations with the United States, aiming to undermine President Donald Trump’s political standing as the midterm elections approach. This tactic reflects Tehran’s deep-seated mistrust of Washington and concerns over potential military interventions, which has shaped their cautious approach to striking a rapid resolution to the ongoing conflict.
### Delaying Tactics
According to three high-ranking Iranian representatives and an insider, the prevailing sentiment in Tehran is that President Trump is inclined to intensify military actions to break the stalemate of the eight-month-long war. One official made it clear that Iran is not preparing to forge an agreement that could benefit Trump politically. Instead, they are bracing for potential military actions from the U.S. and Israel.
This deliberate delay in discussions is seen as a way for Iran to exert influence over the U.S. electoral landscape without resorting to illegal actions. Analyst Saeed Leylaz suggests that by dragging their feet, Tehran not only holds onto its leverage but also distracts from Trump’s diminishing approval ratings, which have been exacerbated by economic pressures, such as rising gasoline prices.
### Exploiting Political Struggles
The conflict, ignited in February with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, has severely impacted Trump’s approval ratings, which are at an all-time low. Polls indicate that discontent over high fuel prices could lead to electoral backlash against Trump’s Republican Party in the November elections. Tehran seems keenly aware of this dynamic and is using it to its advantage.
While Trump has suggested that oil prices may decrease following the elections, he has yet to outline a clear strategy to end the war or reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime route that has been effectively shut off since hostilities erupted. Iranian military threats have kept shipping traffic through the strait minimal, and combined with U.S. sanctions, have severely restricted Iran’s oil revenues.
### Distrust in Diplomatic Engagement
Iran’s approach to the negotiations is further complicated by a historical distrust of U.S. intentions, stemming from previous military engagements that disrupted diplomatic efforts. Iranian officials remain skeptical that any agreement reached would be honored by Washington, especially since notable agreements have been unceremoniously broken in the past. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi recently reaffirmed that their conditions for negotiations include the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian control and the lifting of U.S. sanctions.
For its part, the U.S. government, under pressure from Israel, insists on discussing Iran’s nuclear program from the outset, which Tehran sees as a non-starter. This entrenched position means that significant breakthroughs in negotiations are unlikely before the upcoming midterm elections.
### The Risks of Stalemate
The longer Iran maintains its position, the more vulnerable its economy becomes. The nation is already grappling with soaring inflation rates, with annual inflation hitting approximately 73.6%. The rial has depreciated significantly against the dollar, underscoring the economic pain felt by ordinary Iranians. The repercussions of prolonged conflict have deepened internal strife and unrest, leading to protests that have been met with violent suppression.
While maintaining a precarious balance between war and diplomacy, Tehran seems intent on both protecting its interests and sustaining pressure on Washington. Nonetheless, the prospects of returning to a pre-war status appear bleak as mutual distrust persists. Iran’s leadership is united in the belief that a sustainable agreement with the U.S. is increasingly unattainable, signaling a potential escalation of tensions in the region unless a breakthrough is achieved.