Israeli intelligence source Jonathan Pollard has suggested that Türkiye and Egypt may emerge as the next military adversaries for Israel. This comment reflects an evolving perspective within Israeli circles, increasingly positioning Ankara as a strategic rival reminiscent of Iran.
Future Conflicts on the Horizon
In a recent episode of an Arutz Sheva podcast, Pollard warned that Israel should brace for broader conflicts in the region, particularly after its ongoing issues with Iran. He expressed doubt about Israel’s capability to manage a military engagement with Türkiye as smoothly as it has historically dealt with Iran. “We need to prepare for the next war, which might very well be against Türkiye and Egypt. A storm is approaching,” he remarked, highlighting a sense of urgency in Israel’s military strategy.
His insights come at a time when Israeli officials are increasingly wary of Türkiye’s expanding influence in Syria and its political maneuvers. Pollard specifically cautioned against permitting the Türkiye-backed government in Syria to reclaim territories currently under Israeli control, arguing that this would effectively place Turkish forces along Israel’s borders. This strategy has been echoed by multiple Israeli security analysts who view Türkiye as a looming threat.
Reframing Türkiye as a Military Threat
Pollard’s warnings align with a broader Israeli initiative to redefine Türkiye as a primary military challenger. Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has echoed this sentiment, suggesting that Türkiye, with support from Qatar, is surpassing Iran as Israel’s foremost strategic concern. Israeli defense experts are increasingly alert to the prospect of a direct military clash with Ankara in Syria, raising the stakes of the geopolitical landscape.
A recent report from an Israeli government-appointed committee described Türkiye as a “new regional threat,” emphasizing the need for Israel to reconsider its military preparedness in light of potential confrontations. This sentiment was shared with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other high-ranking officials, underscoring the urgency of reassessing security strategies in the face of shifting regional dynamics.
Growing Concerns Over Egypt
Egypt has also become a focal point in Israeli intelligence assessments. A February analysis discussed a potential Turkish-Egyptian alignment that could form a “Sunni ring” around Israel, heightening concerns in Tel Aviv about a unified front emerging between these two countries. Historically, both have maintained a level of dialogue with Israel but have recently voiced criticisms against Israeli actions in Gaza, indicating a possible shift in their longstanding relationships.
With increasing tensions surrounding Israeli operations and its relations with neighboring states, Pollard’s statements and the wider Israeli security discourse signal a potential tactical pivot. Moves like emphasizing Türkiye as a military adversary could lead to an escalatory spiral, particularly in the already volatile context of the Middle East.
Pollard’s Legacy and Influence
After serving 30 years in U.S. prison for espionage against America, Pollard returned to Israel in 2020, where he was greeted by Netanyahu with a symbolic welcome. Since his return, he has become active in far-right circles and has openly supported more aggressive policies regarding Gaza and the West Bank, including annexation. Following his release, Pollard also controversially called for American Jews to act as intelligence assets for Israel, further polarizing opinions about his role in Israeli society.
As Pollard’s influence grows, the implications of his views could shape Israel’s military strategies in the years to come. With Türkiye and Egypt increasingly depicted as threats, the potential for a changing military and diplomatic landscape will be crucial, requiring careful navigation of complex international relationships.