In the last decade, the Syrian conflict led to an unexpected alliance between Turkey and Russia, which is now showing signs of strain. This shift is pivotal as Turkey is stepping up its support for Ukraine, effectively challenging Russia’s previous influence in the region.
Shifting Alliances in the Middle East
The relationship between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin has long been marked by ambiguity. Initially, the Syrian civil war threatened to bring these two nations into direct conflict, with Turkey backing opposition forces against Bashar al-Assad and Russia intervening to bolster the Assad regime. However, through diplomatic maneuvering, both nations found ways to coexist in a shared strategic space, each moderating its actions to accommodate the other.
Turkey’s 2016 military incursion into northern Syria exemplified this uneasy partnership. As Russia controlled Syrian airspace, it permitted Turkey’s operation in exchange for Turkey limiting its support for Syrian rebels. This arrangement illustrated a broader understanding, where both powers tolerated each other’s presence in Syria, achieving their respective objectives.
The Impact of the Ukraine Conflict
The conflict in Ukraine has dramatically altered the dynamics of the Turkey-Russia relationship. Isolated by Western nations due to his actions, Putin has increasingly relied on Erdogan, who has refrained from joining Western sanctions against Russia. Consequently, Turkey has become a critical hub for Russian trade and energy, enabling Ankara to gain leverage over Moscow.
A significant turning point occurred in late 2024 when Assad was ousted from power. With Russia preoccupied with its challenges in Ukraine, it failed to support its Syrian ally. Instead, Moscow sought to forge new diplomatic ties with Syria’s interim government while continuing to supply oil, putting Russia in the difficult position of negotiating with a government it had previously bombed. Meanwhile, Turkey, which had once aligned itself with Syrian rebels, emerged more assertive in the region.
Turkey’s New Role in the Region
This development presents Turkey with a strategic opportunity. Erdogan is repositioning his country as a key NATO ally, mediating between the West and a new Syrian government, and actively aiding Ukraine in establishing stronger ties within the Middle East. In April, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made a landmark visit to Syria aboard a Turkish state aircraft, meeting with both Erdogan and Syria’s interim leader Ahmed al-Sharaa to discuss military and energy cooperation.
Moreover, Ukraine is leveraging its experience in military technology to assist in reconstructing the Syrian Army, which has lagged behind in modern military capabilities for years. This collaboration opens a new chapter for Ukraine, positioning it as a vital security contributor in the region.
The Future of Regional Power Dynamics
Turkey’s growing partnership with Ukraine is a noteworthy development for both nations and signals a tangible shift in power dynamics in the Middle East. Ukraine, striving for alliances and alternative revenue sources, views its expansion into the Middle Eastern market as essential for its security strategy. Erdogan’s facilitation of this partnership highlights the diminishing global influence of Putin, reshaping the geopolitical landscape.
No longer is Turkey simply balancing between Moscow and NATO; it has decisively leaned toward a position that challenges Russia’s regional foothold. With Russia’s power waning, Turkey now has the freedom to pursue its national interests, and Ukraine stands to benefit significantly from these developments. This emerging alliance not only alters regional relations but also underscores the complexities of international politics in a fast-evolving world.