In the early hours of May 24, striking images from Ankara captured the world’s attention as a court decision led to the expulsion of Ozel from his leadership position in the Republican People’s Party (CHP), Turkey’s foremost opposition party. Following the ruling, special forces surrounded the CHP headquarters in the capital, leading to a tense standoff. Ozel and his colleagues reportedly barricaded themselves inside, but ultimately capitulated, expressing their desire to avoid further escalation.
Under Ozel’s leadership, CHP achieved a remarkable milestone, ending a 22-year streak of electoral defeat against the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). The party’s success in the March 2024 local elections was particularly significant, as it gained control over city councils in 14 major cities, including Istanbul. There, Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu emerged as a formidable contender for the presidency in the upcoming 2028 elections, gathering immense public support.
However, the political landscape shifted dramatically when Imamoglu was arrested, along with various mayors and staff, on charges of corruption and fraud. Following this turmoil, Ozel found himself removed from his post in May, setting off a chain of events that led him to establish a new political entity, the “Yeni Parti” or “New Party,” just two months later. This party aims to position itself as a significant political force, potentially taking the second-largest seat in Turkey’s 600-seat parliament.
The Split in CHP
The CHP, founded in 1923 by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, represents Turkey’s oldest political tradition, advocating for secularism and republican values. Ozel, who ascended to the party’s leadership in 2023, sought to attract a wider voter base by emphasizing social democratic principles. His efforts yielded positive results, reflected in the party’s electoral performance.
The internal conflict revived as former leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu returned to power after Ozel’s ouster. Kilicdaroglu had presided over the CHP’s two-decade-long electoral losses and was perceived as a convenient opponent for President Erdogan.
The Reasons Behind CHP’s Division
The circumstances surrounding the CHP’s division have sparked significant speculation. Analysts suggest that political maneuverings favoring Erdogan played a crucial role in the court’s ruling, potentially serving to eliminate formidable challengers ahead of presidential elections. This discord traces back to 2023 when the reformist faction led by Ozel urged Kilicdaroglu to step down after Erdogan’s election victory. Their success at the subsequent party convention was short-lived; a May 2026 court ruling declared it null, paving the way for a Kilicdaroglu-led resurgence within the party.
Ozel’s Resilience and Future Prospects
Despite his ousting, Ozel’s response remained resolute. He urged his supporters to join him on new political endeavors, ringing with optimism about a fresh start for the opposition. His call to action resonated as numerous lawmakers transitioned to support the Yeni Parti, which now constitutes the fourth-largest party in Turkey’s parliament.
Analysts, such as Seren Selvin Korkmaz from IstanPol, believe that Ozel’s New Party holds promise, especially with backing from former CHP supporters. Yet, she cautions against complacency, noting that voters desire a party capable of transcending its predecessor’s limitations. A recent poll indicates that around 30% of respondents harbor favorable views toward the new party, while another 19% remain undecided based on its platform and leadership.
As Ozel’s Yeni Parti builds its foundation, moving into over 40 provinces will be essential for candidacy eligibility in the next presidential elections. Limited access to funding remains a challenge, complicating Ozel’s ambitions to establish a robust political infrastructure. Whether Ozel’s new party can effectively unite diverse demographics remains a pivotal question as Turkey’s political landscape continues to evolve before the 2028 electoral contest.