A month ago, Donald Trump made headlines by aligning himself with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Ankara, hinting at reinstating Turkey’s access to the F-35 stealth fighter jet program. While it sounded like a breakthrough moment, the reality paints a different picture. As of mid-August 2026, Turkey’s access to the F-35 remains stalled, with the S-400 missile system still in Turkey and U.S. sanctions firmly in place. The optimistic declarations were nothing more than a tantalizing promise that has yet to materialize.
Turkey’s Exclusion from the F-35 Program
Looking back to 2019, Turkey was not just a customer but a key partner in the F-35 program, involved in manufacturing components and poised to receive its own fleet of jets. However, the acquisition of Russia’s S-400 air defense system led to a major fallout between Ankara and Washington. U.S. officials feared that placing a Russian radar system next to the F-35 would compromise the sensitive technology of the aircraft, resulting in Turkey’s expulsion from the program. The six F-35 jets that Turkey had already purchased were rendered inaccessible, and additional sanctions were imposed. The recent talk of lifting sanctions during a NATO summit was overshadowed by the understanding that substantive change could be far off.
Barriers to Progress
The core obstacle facing these negotiations is not solely in Trump’s hands but is enshrined in legislation. The FY2020 National Defense Authorization Act explicitly prohibits the transfer of F-35s to Turkey until it has disposed of the S-400 system. This legislation requires Ankara to not just deactivate the S-400 but to eliminate it entirely. As indicated by the U.S. State Department on July 22, 2026, Turkey has not yet complied with these requirements, leaving the deal in a precarious stalemate. Important political figures in Congress echo this sentiment, making it clear that without the removal of the S-400, Turkey will not receive the fifth-generation fighters.
The situation is further complicated by multiple competing interests. For instance, Israel is actively lobbying against lifting restrictions, arguing that arming Turkey with advanced military technology would disrupt regional stability. This pressure adds another layer of complexity to Turkey’s aspirations.
Turkey’s Alternative Solutions
Undeterred by the current impasse, Turkey is actively exploring alternative avenues to modernize its air force. The first step involves procuring the Eurofighter Typhoon, with Turkey having reached an agreement with the UK to acquire 20 new jets, expected to be delivered starting in 2027. This would provide Turkey with a stopgap solution while sidestepping dependency on U.S. approval.
Additionally, Turkey is investing in its own fifth-generation fighter, the KAAN, which aims to offer a long-term solution to its airpower needs. Prototypes are already making progress, with the first expected to enter service shortly. While these initiatives will not yield immediate results, they signify Turkey’s strategic shift towards self-sufficiency in defense capabilities.
The Current Landscape
As things stand in August 2026, Turkey remains embroiled in a complex negotiation web. The S-400 system is still operational, and the necessary certifications for the F-35 deal have not been sent to Congress, keeping the airframes effectively grounded. Trump may continue to advocate for Turkey’s access to advanced aircraft, yet the firm legislative restrictions paired with a divided Senate indicate that the sale remains unlikely unless substantial changes occur.
With all signs pointing to a long-term standoff, it’s evident that unless Turkey resolves its S-400 dilemma, the F-35 will remain a distant goal rather than a reality, hampered by a combination of legal barriers and geopolitical maneuvers. The interplay between regional ambitions, legislative roadblocks, and evolving military strategies will determine Turkey’s future in the world of advanced combat aircraft.