The fall of the Assad regime in December 2024 was perceived largely as a significant setback for the Iranian-led “Resistance Axis,” marking a triumph for Western powers and their allies. While this analysis is not incorrect, it does lack depth.
### Consequences of Assad’s Collapse
After Assad’s downfall, the anticipated stabilization suggested by Washington failed to materialize. Instead, the northern Levant has experienced a swift consolidation of Turkish influence. Turkey’s strategy includes a mix of Islamist alliances, economic dominance, and the development of advanced drone capabilities. This approach stands out as the most compelling attempt to establish regional superiority that the Middle East has seen since the decline of the Ottoman Empire.
Ankara is quietly laying the groundwork for enduring regional authority, pursuing its goals without evoking significant concern among Western governments.
### The Role of the Muslim Brotherhood
Central to Turkey’s strategy is its collaboration with the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood. This group has acted as Ankara’s ideological ally since the Justice and Development Party (AKP) rose to power under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The Brotherhood’s survival after the 1982 Hama massacre was attributed to a careful balance between moderation and alliance-building with secular factions, allowing it to present a pluralistic image that is appealing to Western audiences while remaining rooted in Islamic governance.
The Brotherhood is now poised to play a crucial role in Syria’s new governance framework post-Assad. Turkey supports its leadership, facilitating its emergence as a dominant force in the country’s administrative landscape. By doing so, Turkey maintains a semblance of local governance while avoiding the stigma of direct colonialism.
### Economic Strategies for Re-establishment
A significant facet of Turkey’s strategy lies in its economic engagement. Several major Turkish corporations, closely aligned with the AKP, are set to spearhead the reconstruction of Syria. These firms have extensive experience in large-scale infrastructure projects and are actively mobilizing resources to rehabilitate airports, roads, and energy systems in Syria.
The economic integration is progressing faster than existing sanctions can track, with Turkish exports to Syria in critical sectors experiencing a dramatic surge. Simultaneously, Turkish state agencies are creating schools and hospitals designed in line with Turkey’s institutional framework, aiming to foster long-term dependence on Turkish expertise among the Syrian populace.
### Emerging Military Capabilities
Among the strategies Turkey has adopted, its advancements in drone technology are garnering less attention yet hold substantial potential impact. Turkey is establishing drone ports across northern Syria that complement its reconstruction efforts. This infrastructure will support logistics, surveillance, and potentially strike capabilities while circumventing conventional military barriers.
This dual-use infrastructure, which merges commercial and military operations, establishes a complex operational envelope. Commercial and military drone activities may easily transition into one another, complicating the regional security landscape.
### Looking Forward
The growth of Turkish hegemony in the region poses challenges that conventional military responses may struggle to address. Turkey’s status as a NATO ally, its G20 membership, and its potential EU accession grant it a unique position. Its influence is not just military but woven into civil society frameworks through organizations that portray a benign image.
In response, the West may need more nuanced strategies. This could include tying the lifting of sanctions to transparency in reconstruction processes to prevent monopolization by Turkish firms. It’s also essential to leverage international coalitions to create a counterbalance to Turkish interests in the region.
In summary, while the collapse of Assad may have appeared as a definitive blow against Iranian influence, the subsequent developments highlight an escalating Turkish presence, altering the dynamics of power in the Levant. This situation necessitates a importantly vigilant and strategically refined response from Western powers.