A recent withdrawal of Egyptian military forces near the Ethiopian border marks a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape of the Nile Basin. As Egypt navigates the complexities surrounding Ethiopia’s growing influence and the aftermath of the conflict in Sudan, the dynamics of regional alliances are evolving rapidly.
End of an Era for Egyptian Presence
Reports indicate that South Sudan has requested the closure of what has been described as an “Egyptian military base” in Pajok, situated in the Upper Nile State. This facility housed around 260 personnel engaged in a variety of functions, including technical support, military training, and advanced surveillance. The strategic location of Pajok, near the border shared by South Sudan, Sudan, and Ethiopia, underscores its significance, particularly due to its proximity to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).
Experts suggest that the closure of the Egyptian outpost is part of a larger trend of political realignment in the Nile Basin. According to Fawzi Ashmawy, a former Egyptian assistant foreign minister, this facility was not a traditional military base but rather an “advanced forward position.” Its location provided Egypt with operational flexibility in a region crucial to its national security and historical rights to Nile waters.
Shifting Strategic Alliances
An anonymous Egyptian official highlighted that Juba’s decision to shut down the facility was driven by several overlapping strategic and domestic factors. First and foremost, South Sudan’s gradual alignment with upstream Nile states was noteworthy. This shift was symbolized by Juba’s signing of the Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA) in late 2024, which marked a break from Egypt’s long-standing support of downstream water rights.
Another significant element influencing South Sudan’s decision is its quest for alternative oil export routes. The ongoing war in Sudan has damaged traditional infrastructure, prompting Juba to strengthen ties with Ethiopia in search of viable export pathways. The Gambella–Pajok–Floj corridor has emerged as a vital route for the transportation of oil through Ethiopian territory.
Tensions and Political Maneuvering
South Sudan is also grappling with fears of being caught in the crossfire between Sudan and Ethiopia. The closure of the Egyptian position serves to reduce the potential for its territory becoming a battleground for proxy wars or drone attacks from rival regional players. Domestically, South Sudanese President Salva Kiir’s decision can be viewed as a move to assert sovereign authority amidst competing factions within the government. In times of economic turmoil, characterized by falling oil revenues, promoting the expulsion of foreign military presence resonates well with the local populace.
Despite the strategic setback posed by the closure of this base, Ashmawy contends that it does not incapacitate Egypt’s overarching regional strategy. The nation maintains a comprehensive approach to its national security vision in Sudan, the Horn of Africa, and the Red Sea. Ongoing diplomatic efforts are aimed at securing international legal frameworks that could potentially limit Ethiopia’s influence in future security arrangements.
The New Reality for Egypt
The withdrawal from Pajok presents a new challenge for Egypt’s regional monitoring systems, particularly regarding the GERD activities. However, the competition for influence in the Nile Basin does not conclude at Sudan’s southern border. Increased diplomatic and security maneuvers by both Egypt and Ethiopia in neighbouring countries such as Somalia, Eritrea, Djibouti, and Uganda indicate that the region is likely entering a new phase marked by shifting alliances and strategic realignments. The evolving dynamics present both challenges and opportunities for the involved nations as they navigate this complex landscape of cooperation and competition.