Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf recently embarked on a significant three-day visit to Iraq, signaling Tehran’s desire to reshape its ties with Baghdad. According to Dr. Yaron Schneider, a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), this visit occurs amidst escalating tensions concerning the disarmament of militias by the end of September and Iraq’s ongoing economic challenges exacerbated by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Strengthening Bilateral Relations Amidst Tensions
Upon arriving in Iraq, Ghalibaf emphasized the necessity for the two nations to bolster a “new regional order,” expressing his disapproval of foreign meddling. This visit underscores Iran’s strategy to maintain and possibly enhance its influence in Iraq during a crucial period. Discussions held by Ghalibaf with Iraqi officials included key topics such as border security, combating terrorism, and expanding economic cooperation, pointing to a mutual interest in strengthening bilateral ties.
A crucial element of these discussions involved addressing economic challenges. Iraq is heavily reliant on its oil sector, which constitutes approximately 90% of government revenues and significantly impacts the overall economy. Schneider highlights that the ongoing oil revenue crisis, where monthly revenues plummeted from about $7-8 billion to a mere $1.2-1.9 billion, is stoking domestic tensions. This financial strain has led to salary delays for government employees, raising concerns about the state’s stability.
Iraqi Leaders Seek Solutions Amid Economic Woes
The pressing economic issues were notably recognized by Iraq’s own Parliament Speaker, who appealed to Ghalibaf for a special exemption allowing Iraqi oil exports to navigate through the Strait of Hormuz safely. This request illustrates Iraq’s precarious position, where international relations must be delicately balanced alongside internal political pressures, particularly from factions supportive of Iranian influence.
Schneider suggests that Iran is proactively working to mend its relationship with Iraq to prevent losing ground amid these internal challenges. With significant Iranian assets at stake, Tehran likely seeks to ensure that its influence, particularly through affiliated militias, remains intact despite the political winds shifting against them.
Iran’s Strategy to Offset Influences
The discussions surrounding the potential economic agreements between Iran and Iraq signify Tehran’s strategy to deflect criticism regarding the economic fallout from the Hormuz crisis. Current reports suggest that Iran may be negotiating a deal whereby the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) can retain their arms, yet under conditions that would restrict their use temporarily. This move reflects Iran’s tactical approach to maintain its regional clout while appeasing growing domestic and foreign calls for militia disarmament.
Despite the complications following militia attacks which prompted further international scrutiny, including pressure from Washington, Iraq’s government faces a tug-of-war of sorts. While American policies appear somewhat effective in constraining Iranian influence, many members of Iraq’s coalition government remain aligned with Iran, complicating any potential moves towards complete disarmament of these militias. This intricate setup illustrates the ongoing struggle for control and influence in the region, as both Iran and Iraq navigate their intertwined futures amidst external pressures and internal dissent.