Iraq and the United Arab Emirates are accelerating their efforts to enhance oil pipeline infrastructure as a strategic response to the challenges posed by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This urgent development reflects the significant dependence of both nations on the Persian Gulf for oil exports.
Iraq’s Strategic Moves to Increase Oil Exports
In a recent decision, the Iraqi cabinet approved plans to expand crude exports via the Kurdistan-Turkey pipeline network. This expansion aims to boost export capacity from 220,000 barrels per day to 770,000 barrels per day. The Kurdistan route provides an alternative outlet for Iraqi oil, connecting to Turkey’s Mediterranean port of Ceyhan. At full capacity, this pipeline could contribute significantly to Iraq’s economy, which relies heavily on oil revenue, accounting for approximately 53% of its GDP in 2025, according to the World Bank.
Recent insights from QuantCube Technology, a provider of economic intelligence, highlight Iraq’s precarious reliance on the Strait of Hormuz. Since the onset of conflict, the nation’s oil exports have dwindled dramatically, a situation exacerbated by its geographical vulnerability. According to their data, Iraq exported merely 10 million barrels through Hormuz in April, a stark decline from 93 million barrels prior to the war.
UAE’s Initiatives to Bypass Hormuz Constraints
Meanwhile, the UAE is moving swiftly to construct the West-East pipeline to Fujairah, aimed at increasing its oil export capacity and circumventing the Hormuz chokepoint. Expected to come online by 2027, this project will double the export capacity of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) and address the rising global demand for energy.
Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince, Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, has emphasized the urgency of delivering this pipeline to maintain the UAE’s position in the global oil market. Although the UAE has seen struggles, export capacities through alternative ports like Fujairah remain intact, providing a buffer against the disruptions caused by the conflict.
Challenges and Risks of Alternative Oil Routes
Despite efforts to establish alternative export routes, regional tensions present ongoing risks. Attacks on the Saudi East-West pipeline and oil loading operations at Fujairah highlight the volatility of the situation. These pipelines collectively have an estimated capacity ranging from 3.5 to 5.5 million barrels per day, but current flows fall significantly short of the near 20 million barrels that previously flowed through the Strait of Hormuz daily.
Investing in new infrastructure for alternative routes demands not just hefty financial resources but also considerable time. Transnational agreements may be required when pipelines traverse multiple national territories, further complicating the development of these crucial routes.
As of now, maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains significantly limited compared to pre-war levels. Reports indicate that vessel movements have reached some of the lowest figures during the Iran conflict, with ships facing risks from Iranian forces if they attempt to navigate without proper clearance. The likelihood of U.S. sanctions for cooperation with Iranian entities also looms large, adding another layer of complexity to the already strained shipping lanes.
In conclusion, both Iraq and the UAE are seeking to adapt to an evolving geopolitical landscape by diversifying their oil export routes. However, the road ahead is fraught with challenges, requiring robust infrastructure investments and strategic diplomatic maneuvers to secure their energy future.