Esmail Qaani, commander of Iran’s Quds Force, frequently travels to Baghdad without prior notice. On August 10, he made another undisclosed visit, meeting key Iraqi militia leaders and officials from the Coordination Framework, an alliance of Iran-aligned Shia parties that largely directs Iraq’s parliamentary actions, including the appointment of the current prime minister.
Qaani’s Influence on Iraqi Militias
During his visit, Qaani emphasized the importance of maintaining arms among the militias instead of transferring them to the Iraqi government. This request comes as the Iraqi administration faces mounting pressure from the United States to disarm these groups by September 30, coinciding with a planned withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq. Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, who has leaned more towards U.S. interests, notably did not meet with Qaani. A source close to al-Zaidi revealed that the Prime Minister intends to foster a political instead of a military relationship, complicating Qaani’s influence in Iraqi affairs.
Just two days following Qaani’s meeting, Asharq al-Awsat reported that al-Zaidi’s cabinet remains incomplete, with nine key ministries—defense and interior among them—still unfilled. Allegedly, Tom Barrack, the U.S. ambassador to Turkey, has been blocking potential candidates for these roles, reinforcing American control over Iraqi governance. Barrack’s constraints extend to multiple political factions, including Nouri al-Maliki’s coalition, emphasizing a U.S. stance that closely ties candidates to their affiliations with militias.
The Tug of War Over Disarmament
As discussions continue, al-Zaidi has taken steps toward legally formalizing the disarmament of the militias. He has requested the parliament’s defense and security committee to create legislation that would enforce all armed groups to cede their weapons to state authority. However, most factions under the Popular Mobilization Forces framework have operated in a grey area, recognized by the state but not entirely governed by it since being integrated into the security apparatus in 2016.
While some smaller factions have pledged to comply with disarmament, skepticism surrounds the authenticity of these gestures. Reports suggest that the reported handovers mostly consist of obsolete weapons, with no independent verification to ensure that advanced weaponry remains out of militia hands. Iranian officials seem equally aware, as Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf recently discussed plans in Baghdad to hide or relocate heavier arms back to Iran.
Ongoing Geopolitical Struggles
As the U.S. and Iran engage in a continuous struggle for influence in Iraq, Prime Minister al-Zaidi’s recent attempts to foster relations with Saudi Arabia further complicate matters. Following a series of U.S.-Saudi strikes against Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, al-Zaidi canceled an intended visit to Riyadh but did meet Riyadh’s intelligence chief, assuring that Iraqi territory would not be used for attacks against other nations.
The overarching U.S. strategy, articulated primarily by Tom Barrack, frames Iraq not as a standalone issue but as an integral part of a broader geopolitical projection across the region. This plan notably excludes Iran, aiming instead to strengthen ties between Iraq and various neighboring states. However, the chaotic situation in Iraq exacerbated by on-going hostilities hampers any real progress toward stability.
In conclusion, the looming deadline of September 30 for militia disarmament hangs in a precarious balance, heavily influenced by the dynamics between Washington and Tehran. True disarmament seems improbable without Iran concluding that such factions are no longer beneficial, coupled with Baghdad finally employing force against its own influential militia groups. The outcome remains uncertain, but the need for a balanced resolution becomes increasingly critical to avoid further escalating regional tensions.