In the run-up to the upcoming Israeli elections, the potential for a unity government has captured significant attention. With polls indicating that neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition nor the Jewish opposition bloc may achieve the necessary majority in the Knesset, political dynamics are shifting. The opposition has already indicated that it will not rely on Arab lawmakers to overcome legislative deadlock.
Possible Outcomes of the Elections
Should neither coalition secure the coveted 61 seats in the Knesset, Israel may face a dilemma: either conduct another election shortly or form a unity government that unites Netanyahu’s Likud party with opposition members. However, discussions currently dismiss far-right factions, including the Jewish Power party led by Itamar Ben Gvir and the Religious Zionism party headed by Bezalel Smotrich.
Israeli President Isaac Herzog is advocating for governmental stability, fearing the ramifications of repeated elections. He emphasized his commitment to forming a resilient government in an interview with Yedioth Ahronoth, stating, “Israel faces enormous national challenges and cannot afford the cost of repeated election cycles.” Nevertheless, opposition leader Avigdor Liberman expressed that forming a unity government with Netanyahu would signify a disgrace that could haunt future generations, labeling any such government as “a paralyzed one.” He asserted that Netanyahu prioritizes power over public safety and governance.
Contrasting Opinions in the Opposition
While Liberman remains staunchly opposed to a compromise with Netanyahu, Benny Gantz of the Blue and White party has signaled some willingness for unity but dismissed the involvement of Arab or Haredi parties, urging for a “broad Zionist unity government.” On the other hand, Yair Lapid has voiced strong opposition to a unity government, insisting that Netanyahu would ultimately betray his partners. He urged opposition leaders to explicitly state their refusal to participate in such a government.
As discussions around a unity government continue, Israeli commentator Yaron Dekel has presented a potential framework that would keep Ben Gvir and Smotrich out of the equation. This proposal suggests that Netanyahu could lead a new government for a year and a half before transitioning to the presidency. However, Ben Gvir has expressed concerns about being sidelined, urging Netanyahu to maintain a predominantly right-wing coalition.
The Road to Unity: Major Concessions Required
Dekel contends that an inconclusive election outcome might lead to a scenario reminiscent of the unity government established in 1984. For this to happen, they would need to make significant compromises, such as Netanyahu distancing himself from Ben Gvir and Smotrich, halting the controversial judicial overhaul, and allowing for an investigation into events from October 7, 2023. These steps could provide Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar party, the justification needed to join the coalition.
Although polls are predicting a challenging path ahead, the absence of animosity between Netanyahu and Eisenkot might pave the way for negotiations. Both sides would need to agree to substantial concessions. Eisenkot could support a rotation deal, while Netanyahu would need to forsake his far-right allies and adopt more moderate positions.
With the elections slated for October 27, the situation remains fluid. Netanyahu, who has been leading what many describe as the most right-wing government in Israel’s history, is also facing legal challenges including corruption and war crime allegations stemming from ongoing conflict in Gaza, which could further complicate the political landscape. In this complex scenario of political maneuvering, the makeup of Israel’s next government remains uncertain, with unity as one of the critical possibilities under exploration.