In recent months, senior officials from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia have publicly demonstrated a renewed commitment to their partnership. These messages indicate a possible shift towards mending their historically strained relations. While it’s uncertain whether these diplomatic gestures will lead to concrete actions, a small thaw in tensions could provide Gulf nations with a chance to effectively address ongoing threats from Iran.
Urgent Need for Coordination
The imperative for collaboration among Gulf states has never been greater. They are currently facing heightened tensions due to the ongoing conflict between Iran and the United States. In addition, the crisis involving the Houthis in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait poses a potential dual chokepoint dilemma. Even if combat activities decrease, Iran is unlikely to change its confrontational stance towards its neighbors or abandon its control over vital shipping lanes like the Strait of Hormuz. As U.S.-Iran negotiations unfold, Gulf countries cannot rely solely on external powers to secure their interests; they must find a way to consolidate their own defenses.
Strategic Priorities for Gulf Cooperation
For Gulf states to navigate these complex challenges, they should focus on three key priorities: establishing credible deterrence, employing conditional engagement with Iran, and safeguarding freedom of navigation. The first priority is deterrence. With the limitations of U.S. security guarantees becoming more evident, especially in light of Iran’s recent drone attacks on Gulf economies, it’s critical for Gulf nations to demonstrate to Iran that aggressive actions will incur significant consequences. This involves creating a unified stance on red lines, whereby an attack on one Gulf state would compel a joint response from all.
The coordinated response doesn’t always need to be military; it can also involve diplomatic or economic actions tailored to leverage the collective power of the Gulf states. By establishing clear red lines, Gulf nations can work together to mobilize a range of responses in partnership with European and Asian allies. However, the challenge lies in the willingness to execute these plans effectively, particularly given Iran’s history of inflicting pain on its adversaries.
Conditional Engagement and Freedom of Navigation
The second priority, conditional engagement, allows Gulf states to offer economic support to Iran, but only under strict conditions aimed at curbing hostile actions. To prevent any member state from undermining this strategy, Gulf nations must act collectively to outline the conditions under which economic assistance can be granted—specifically requiring Iran to halt all forms of aggression against Gulf countries. While some Gulf states might already be engaging in limited economic relief for Iran, this form of support should be used strategically to encourage restraint rather than merely to buy short-term peace.
Freedom of navigation remains the third priority. Allowing Iran to control shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz gives it continued leverage over Gulf nations and risks compromising their maritime security. Unified opposition to Iranian control—exemplified by recent cooperative efforts among Gulf countries—is essential. Protecting freedom of navigation ensures that no single state is isolated or exposed to Iranian aggression, reinforcing the collective security framework necessary for regional stability.
Conclusion: A Collaborative Future
The cooperation among Gulf states does not necessitate a one-size-fits-all approach to dealing with Iran. Countries like Qatar and Oman have unique strengths that can contribute to the larger picture. Qatar’s economic influence and Oman’s mediating role can help bridge gaps in understanding, while Kuwait and Bahrain can champion collaboration. However, Saudi Arabia and the UAE should lead these collective efforts, given their significant military and economic capabilities.
Despite existing differences between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, both nations find themselves navigating an increasingly volatile landscape with a need for strategic coordination. By transforming diplomatic overtures into actionable plans, they can better manage regional threats and possibly lay the groundwork for a more autonomous security architecture in the Gulf.