Saudi Arabia is contemplating an offensive against Houthi militants in Yemen, aligned with Iran, in order to secure the crucial shipping lane at Bab el-Mandeb. This strategic move comes amid rising tensions in the U.S.-Iran conflict, which has already disrupted vital oil shipments and regional trade routes.
Growing Military Tensions in the Red Sea
The Saudi offensive could commence within weeks, potentially involving more than 100,000 Yemeni troops depending on its scale. Reports indicate that the Houthis have recently made significant gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, having seized the strategic port of Mocha and making advances towards important islands. This escalation enhances their control over Bab el-Mandeb, a critical chokepoint for global maritime shipping.
As the Strait of Hormuz has faced persistent disruptions due to geopolitical tensions, Saudi Arabia has increasingly relied on the Red Sea route. The Houthi control over Bab el-Mandeb poses a significant risk, as it could provide Iran and its allies with new leverage over energy shipments vital to the global economy.
Previously, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman sought direct U.S. military assistance against the Houthis, but President Donald Trump opted against direct intervention, instead offering intelligence support. The U.S. continues to engage with Saudi Arabia and Yemen, emphasizing the importance of maintaining freedom of navigation in the Red Sea amidst ongoing conflicts.
Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo noted that Iran is leveraging the Houthis to escalate tensions for the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, as part of a broader strategy to sustain Tehran’s influence in the region.
Strategic Scope of the Offensive
The range of the anticipated Saudi military operation remains vague, with strategies varying from a limited assault centered around Bab el-Mandeb to a more widespread campaign across regions such as Al-Bayda, Marib, Taiz, and Al-Jawf. Michael Ratney, a former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia, suggested that any forthcoming offensive is likely to be “fairly limited,” focusing on restoring prior conditions rather than a large-scale military engagement akin to the 2015 campaign.
Saudi-supported Yemeni forces are expected to take on a significant role in the ground operations. However, these forces consist of various factions that were armed and trained by both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates during the previous civil war, complicating potential unified efforts.
Support from the U.S. and Allies
While Washington is providing intelligence support, it has opted not to take on a direct combat role in the potential conflict. In addition to U.S. backing, Turkey and Pakistan have supplied military equipment under a recent defense agreement. Pakistan has also stationed 30,000 to 40,000 troops to bolster security along Saudi borders, although a decision to send troops into Yemen remains unmade.
Earlier, Pakistan delivered air-defense systems, light artillery, drones, and anti-drone mechanisms to Aden. Furthermore, Turkey has deployed drones, which were purchased prior to the current hostilities. France has committed to offering defensive systems and personnel to protect Yanbu, a significant port city.
In light of ongoing Houthi advances posing a threat to crucial shipping routes, Saudi Arabia has reached out to other regional powers for assistance. China has reportedly urged Iran to influence the Houthis to avoid further escalations that could endanger vital energy corridors following Riyadh’s request for intervention.
With uncertain timelines regarding the Saudi operation—ranging from imminent actions to post-U.S. midterm elections—the situation poses the risk of another regional flashpoint as existing U.S.-Iran tensions continue to create turbulence in major energy and shipping channels.