Saudi Arabia is contemplating a significant military operation against the Houthi movement in Yemen. This potential offensive would primarily involve Yemeni troops acting under the guidance of Riyadh, with Saudi air support. Reports suggest that preparations are in progress, and the operation could commence soon.
Strategic Offensive Plans
Sources close to Gulf state policymakers and Western diplomats indicate that Saudi Arabia is evaluating two strategic scenarios for the campaign. The first option consists of a localized military operation focused around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which serves as a crucial exit point from the Red Sea. The second strategy proposes launching multifaceted assaults across various fronts, particularly in the provinces of Al Bayda, Marib, Taiz, and Al Jawf.
The primary goal of this offensive appears to be the reclamation of territories lost to the Houthis, particularly following their recent advances along the Red Sea coastline. Depending on the scale of the mobilization, estimates suggest that over 100,000 Yemeni soldiers could be involved in the operation. Although the exact timing of the strike remains uncertain—ranging from the upcoming week to after the US midterm elections in early November—there has been no public comment from the involved parties, including the Saudi and Yemeni governments, the Houthis, and U.S. military representatives.
International Collaborations and Potential Risks
Western diplomats point out that the United States is playing a supportive role by providing military advisors and crucial intelligence, including targeting data for airstrikes in Yemen. However, it appears that Riyadh’s allies are unlikely to directly engage in combat during this operation. Reports also indicate that Pakistan has shipped military equipment to Yemen, including air defense systems and artillery, and has deployed military advisors to assist Saudi forces on the ground.
Nevertheless, the operation carries significant risks for Saudi Arabia, especially regarding potential retaliatory strikes from Houthi drone and missile attacks, which could target vital oil facilities and infrastructure within the kingdom. Additionally, France has announced plans to bolster Saudi defenses by sending military personnel and defense systems to the Red Sea port city of Yanbu.
The Role of Yemeni Forces
The success of the ground offensive largely hinges on various Yemeni armed factions, many of which have received training and support from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates since the conflict began. Analysts highlight that these anti-Houthi groups are often poorly organized and may lack the preparedness required for a sustained military campaign against the disciplined Houthi forces.
The situation has been further complicated by internal divisions among Yemeni forces. Last winter, a faction backed by the UAE attempted to seize control in eastern Yemen, leading to plans for secession. Although they faced significant pushback from Saudi-supported forces, the fragmentation of military operation capabilities poses additional challenges to a coordinated offensive against the Houthis.
In summary, while Saudi Arabia’s planned military operation against the Houthis demonstrates its commitment to reclaim lost territories and stabilize the region, multiple factors—including international support and the capabilities of Yemeni forces—will play pivotal roles in the success of this endeavor. The complexities of this dynamic situation highlight the ongoing struggle for control in Yemen and its significance on a global scale.