Oded Eilam, the former head of the Mossad’s counterterrorism division, recently expressed skepticism regarding the likelihood of military conflict between Israel and Turkey. In a discussion with 103FM, he pointed out that despite the aggressive regional ambitions of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a direct confrontation is not likely in the near future.
Regional Relations and Military Aspirations
Eilam addressed the perceived threat Turkey poses to Israel, asserting that a war between the two nations is not imminent. He stated, “The answer is unequivocally no, for the simple reason that neither side is interested in a military confrontation, particularly not at this time.” He suggested that such an action would contradict Erdogan’s broader strategy, which appears to focus on gradual territorial expansion rather than overt militaristic aggression.
Eilam elaborated on Erdogan’s ambitions, emphasizing that they extend beyond mere nostalgia for the Ottoman Empire. “Erdogan has a comprehensive and organized multiyear plan,” he noted, outlining efforts towards creeping annexation in various regions, including Libya, Somalia, and Gaza. His strategic moves are likely calculated to bolster Turkey’s influence without engaging in open warfare against established powers like Israel.
Israel’s Defensive Stance
The former Mossad chief lauded Israel for establishing clear boundaries with Turkey, particularly regarding military advancements that could disrupt the Israeli Air Force’s operations. He stated that Israel has successfully drawn a “clear line in the sand” against Turkish violations. This proactive approach aims to mitigate risks associated with Turkish military capabilities that could challenge Israel’s air supremacy.
Despite Erdogan’s ambitions and military acquisitions, Eilam does not believe the Turkish president seeks direct confrontation with Israel. He remarked, “Erdogan is not eager for battle… he recognizes Israeli power.” Instead, he is gradually fortifying Turkey’s naval capabilities, which could pose a threat not only to Israel but also to regional interests in Europe, especially concerning nations like Bulgaria and Greece.
The Geopolitical Landscape
Eilam also highlighted another strategic asset Erdogan possesses: control over the refugee gateway to Europe. This puts Turkey in a powerful negotiating position, as European nations provide substantial financial aid—approximately $200 million to $250 million annually—to manage the inflow of refugees. This dependency fosters a degree of leverage that Erdogan can wield in geopolitical negotiations, further cementing Turkey’s role in European security discussions.
Concluding his analysis, Eilam criticized U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack, underscoring the importance of remaining vigilant against incendiary rhetoric. He hinted that some narratives may be exaggerated, mentioning the claims about Turkish air operations as potentially overstated.
In summary, while tensions exist, both Eilam and other experts suggest that a military conflict between Israel and Turkey remains unlikely. The dynamics of regional power, strategic interests, and diplomatic negotiations indicate that both nations are more focused on avoiding direct confrontation than engaging in it.