In May 2023, the police in Ankara forcefully entered the headquarters of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), marking a crucial moment in Turkey’s political landscape. This operation followed a contentious court ruling reinstating former CHP leader, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who is perceived as less threatening by the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). Party members supporting Özgür Özel, Kılıçdaroğlu’s successor, attempted to block police entry by barricading the entrance, but were eventually removed. This incident not only reflected the escalating tensions within Turkish politics but also led to a significant power shift, culminating in the formation of a new political entity.
The Emergence of the New Party
Following the police incursion, Özel and 90 CHP members resigned, establishing the New Party, effectively reducing the CHP to just 44 seats in Turkey’s 600-seat parliament. The CHP, which had been the main opposition party since 2002, faced an unprecedented decline in influence. The New Party, boasting 91 legislators, capitalized on this turmoil, traditionally benefiting from political injustices that resonate with voters. Historical parallels, such as Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s rise after his prison term, suggest that the New Party might gain traction if they navigate this situation effectively.
The Legacy and Challenges of CHP
The CHP has a storied legacy, founded by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk in 1923 and playing a pivotal role in shaping modern Turkey. Recent shifts have dramatically affected its position. In the March 2024 local elections, the CHP was the most favored party, led by Özel with a noteworthy 37.8% of the vote, outpacing the AKP. This marked a significant turning point in Turkish politics, signaling a potential shift in public sentiment leading up to the 2028 presidential elections. However, the key question remains: can the CHP recover from this current crisis?
State of Opposition under Pressure
Turkey’s ruling elite has grown increasingly concerned about the CHP’s rise, particularly its charismatic mayors like Ekrem İmamoğlu. İmamoğlu’s candidacy has now come under legal scrutiny, with numerous accusations against him and other CHP officials. These legal assaults have culminated in arrests of CHP mayors across various regions, contributing to a climate of fear and apathy among opposition supporters. İmamoğlu’s arrest in early 2025 sparked widespread protests, yet subsequent court cases have met with diminishing public response, suggesting a general fatigue with ongoing legal battles.
Kılıçdaroğlu’s recent remarks calling for an internal purification of the CHP have provoked backlash among its supporters. By insinuating that some party members may indeed be culpable, he has sparked protests and further defections. The party’s inability to defend its members has raised questions about its survival.
The Future of Turkish Politics
Despite the momentum behind the New Party, it faces significant hurdles. Lacking the historical resources, personnel, and financial backing of the CHP, it risks joining the ranks of past splinter parties in Turkish history that have struggled to gain electoral support. Advocating a social democratic platform, the New Party’s recognition of Turkey’s diverse identities along with its commitment to EU integration may position it as a fresh alternative for voters.
The CHP’s enduring legacy as a titan of Turkish politics presents both challenges and opportunities for Özel’s New Party. To transform Turkey effectively, a bold and progressive agenda is essential. This could not only secure electoral victories but also lay the groundwork for profound transformation in Turkish society. The unfolding narrative in Turkish politics will rest largely on the ability of the New Party to present itself not just as a factional breakaway but as a legitimate successor to the CHP’s legacy.