The Council for a Secure America (CSA) has identified Kuwait as the Middle Eastern country that is most likely to establish diplomatic ties with Israel under the Abraham Accords. This report reflects the evolving political and security landscape in the region, suggesting that Lebanon and Syria follow closely behind in terms of potential normalization.
Kuwait Takes the Lead in Normalization Prospects
In a recent analysis titled “Abraham Accords Expansion Opportunities: Middle East Analysis,” CSA explored nine predominantly Muslim nations without formal relations with Israel: Kuwait, Lebanon, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, Iraq, Yemen, and Iran. Released on October 8, this report suggests that a significant majority—over 80%—of Israelis favor the Abraham Accords, which were initially formed in 2020 with the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. CSA Executive Director Jennifer Sutton emphasized the importance of ongoing American engagement in the Middle East, which is increasingly vital due to current geopolitical realities.
The findings about Kuwait are particularly intriguing, especially since the country has historically opposed normalization. Nevertheless, the strategic shifts in its politics—such as the increasing influence of Emir Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah—are significant. This shift includes a deeper alliance with the UAE and stronger ties with the United States. Notably, this credibility is cemented by Kuwait’s involvement in defensive arrangements following assaults by Iranian forces during the Iran War of 2026, which bolstered its strategic importance in the region.
Lebanon and Syria’s Evolving Political Dynamics
Following Kuwait, Lebanon has emerged as the second most likely candidate for normalization. Recent diplomatic engagements, particularly the US-mediated “Trilateral Framework” in June, marked a noteworthy step as Lebanon acknowledged Israeli sovereignty for the first time. Polling shows a significant portion of the Lebanese population, around 41%, expressing optimism for peace with Israel, although support for full normalization rests at only 32%. Challenges still loom, notably from Hezbollah’s persistent military presence.
Syria, in third place, shows potential for normalization, especially in the context of ongoing negotiations accelerated by recent shifts in political power. Remarkably, 54% of Syrians believe that peace is achievable, and 53% support the formation of a security agreement as a precursor to broader negotiations. However, territorial disputes, particularly over the Golan Heights, represent substantial hurdles to any formal agreements.
Regional Candidates and Their Hesitations
While Saudi Arabia was once viewed as a frontrunner for normalization, it has retreated from that position, especially post-October 2023 and the devastating Iran War. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s previous willingness to consider joining the accords now faces skepticism, primarily due to concerns about Israel’s regional policies and its relationship with Iran.
Meanwhile, Oman has distanced itself from normalization despite its history of diplomatic contacts with Israel. Under Sultan Haitham bin Tariq, Oman has opted to reinforce its role as a mediator rather than pivoting towards formal relations. Similarly, Qatar’s status remains contingent on a viable peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians. It maintains a working relationship but is unlikely to formalize ties in the near future due to its connections with Iran and support for various factions.
Iraq remains an unlikely candidate for normalization due to strong Iranian influence and existing laws criminalizing ties with Israel. However, Iraqi Kurdistan presents a contrasting view with its history of engagement despite national legal constraints. On the other hand, Yemen’s ongoing civil conflict renders any negotiations impossible, especially given the active hostility from Iran-backed Houthi forces.
In summary, the regional landscape shows a mixture of promise and persistent challenges regarding normalization with Israel. As political dynamics evolve, the focus on engagement and dialogue remains crucial. The potential shift of countries towards the Abraham Accords is a landscape worthy of continued observation.