The recent conclusion of the U.S.-led coalition’s Operation Inherent Resolve in Iraq has marked a significant shift in the region’s security landscape. On September 30, the remaining forces and assets finalized their withdrawal, placing primary responsibility for security squarely on Iraqi authorities and provoking critical discussions about how Iraq and Syria will manage their extensive borders against potential ISIS threats.
Transition to Iraqi Security Oversight
The U.S. Central Command has indicated that this transition was planned in a movement towards strengthening the bilateral defense relationship between the United States and Iraq. While the Combined Joint Task Force-Operation Inherent Resolve has shifted its headquarters to Jordan, coalition forces are poised to continue counter-ISIS operations in Syria. This adjustment leaves Iraq with a heightened responsibility to monitor its borders more independently.
As Iraq takes on these new security responsibilities, the nature of surveillance and intelligence operation becomes vital. Analysts have raised concerns regarding whether Iraqi forces can effectively maintain the necessary intelligence-sharing capabilities across the Syrian-Iraqi border. Iraqi journalist Ali al-Khazali has noted that the critical change post-coalition has not involved troop numbers but an increased readiness and accountability for Iraqi forces.
Strengthening Defensive Measures
Prior to the withdrawal, Iraq had been proactively building a multilayered defense mechanism along its Syrian border, involving its army, border guards, and the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). These entities had established fortified positions, including walls, trenches, and enhanced surveillance technologies. Al-Khazali emphasized that Baghdad’s aim has been to lessen reliance on foreign military presence and empower Iraqi forces to manage their territory directly.
Despite these advancements, al-Khazali suggests that while Iraqi forces are more capable of addressing domestic operational challenges, replacing the high-tech intelligence capabilities previously provided by the coalition remains a more formidable issue. The U.S. has supplied advanced aerial surveillance and intelligence systems that Iraq will find difficult to replicate quickly.
Continuing Challenges Along the Border
Both Iraqi and Syrian analysts agree that changes in troop presence or surveillance are insufficient for effective border control. With ISIS adapting its operational structure to rely on smaller cells rather than large formations, cornering them becomes more complex. ISIS can utilize desert routes and financial networks to exploit any intelligence gaps that may arise from the reduced military footprint.
Firas al-Allawi, a political analyst in Syria, noted the challenges posed by limited military deployments and inadequate surveillance along the vast Syrian border. He emphasized that real improvements in border security would hinge on enhanced technical support and intelligence cooperation among Iraq, the U.S., and other regional allies rather than merely increasing troop numbers.
The Path Ahead
As Iraq moves forward, concerns remain about the shared responsibility of handling thousands of ISIS detainees and preventing the resurgence of ISIS. The end of the coalition mission doesn’t sever the interconnected security dynamics between Iraq and Syria. Cooperation is essential to ensure effective responses to threats from ISIS while also addressing broader regional dynamics.
Both countries face the critical task of ensuring information flows faster than the ISIS operatives themselves. As they navigate this new chapter, the efficacy of their communication and cooperation will play a pivotal role in shaping the security landscape in this historically volatile region. Thus, the path ahead involves not just military might but a concerted effort to enhance intelligence sharing and operational collaboration among all parties involved.