Egypt is currently facing a significant decline in its vital wheat imports as conflict between its two main suppliers, Russia and Ukraine, disrupts shipping in the Black Sea. This situation poses a critical challenge for the country, which heavily depends on these imports to meet its food security needs.
The Impact of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict on Wheat Exports
Since the outbreak of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, both nations have increasingly targeted ships and port infrastructure in the Black Sea, creating a bottleneck in grain exports. As of early October, drone strikes have intensified attacks on commercial vessels and ports, with incidents reported as close as Bulgaria’s exclusive economic zone. The ongoing tensions have severely limited the flow of wheat, with Egypt relying heavily on these exports for its food supply.
The conflict has further complicated the supply chain dynamics in the Middle East, with Egypt additionally facing challenges from Iran’s shipping disturbances in the Strait of Hormuz and allied Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. Together, these factors heighten the risk associated with maritime transport, impacting Egypt’s wheat availability.
Wheat Supply Challenges for Egypt
Historically, Russia and Ukraine have supplied approximately 85% of Egypt’s wheat imports. However, with escalating hostilities, Russia’s wheat shipments have dropped significantly—up to 40% lower than usual in August alone. Meanwhile, Ukraine can only export about a third of its grain due to the ongoing Russian assaults, constraining the country’s ability to meet global food demands.
Egypt’s wheat imports saw a decrease to about 12.5 million metric tons in the fiscal year of 2025-26, down from 13.2 million tons the year before. The Egyptian government halted wheat imports in May, leaving private enterprises to fill the gap as the conflict intensifies. Ahmed Kamal, the assistant minister of supply, indicated that domestic wheat production has risen by more than 6.5% year-on-year, contributing to over 10 million tons in fiscal 2025-26.
Potential Strategies and Alternatives for Egypt
To mitigate the impact of these disruptions, Egypt has recently sourced about two million tons of wheat between February and May from alternative markets, with plans to explore other suppliers like France and Romania. Although these options exist, Professor Maha el-Sheikh warns that they may not provide a cost-effective solution, as increased shipping distances elevate both transport and insurance expenses. Consequently, this may lead to increased bread prices for consumers in Egypt.
The United Nations World Food Program has expressed serious concerns over the escalating attacks on Black Sea shipping routes, describing them as a direct threat to global food security. With anticipated hunger crises looming, Abeer Etefa, a representative for the program, emphasizes the urgent need to secure food supply chains to prevent exacerbating the current situation.
In conclusion, while alternatives to Russian and Ukrainian wheat exist, the cost implications raise concerns for Egypt’s food stability. Without effective shipping routes, the combined pressures from the ongoing conflict and logistical challenges threaten to push food prices higher and may contribute to an increasing food security crisis in Egypt and beyond.