Iranian Kurdish opposition factions are experiencing heightened vigilance following the commencement of US-Israel military strikes on Iran, which began on February 28. The conflict has effectively brought their bases, located both within the semi-autonomous Kurdish Region of Iraq and in Iranian territory, to the forefront of hostilities. Discussions surrounding the involvement of Iranian Kurdish fighters to overthrow the Iranian government are becoming increasingly prevalent. Notably, both US officials and Israeli leaders have suggested that supplying arms to these groups could be pivotal in reshaping the power dynamics in Iran, where Kurds represent approximately 10% of the population.
Military Readiness and Organizational Structure
Leaders from various Kurdish factions have informed media sources that they currently possess military formations and functional organizational structures in regions occupied by Kurds within Iran. Additionally, they maintain operational bases in northern Iraq’s Kurdish areas. The rise of Kurdish groups on both sides of the Iran-Iraq border can be traced back to the Gulf War of 1990-1991, which established a no-fly zone in northern Iraq and led to the Kurdistan Regional Government achieving a degree of self-rule. Subsequent to the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, Iranian Kurdish groups have found themselves better positioned politically and militarily.
In reaction to the ongoing violence, five Kurdish factions based in Iraq and western Iran convened on February 22, 2026, to form the Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan. This alliance emerged in response to the suppression of protests against the Iranian regime. However, since the outbreak of hostilities, their military and political assets have faced severe assaults from Iranian airstrikes, raising concerns about their operational capabilities and safety.
Challenges and Losses
Kako Alyar, a member of the political bureau of the Komala Party of Iranian Kurdistan, indicated that their group had sleeper cells that actively participated in antigovernment demonstrations in Iran. These protests were met with violent crackdowns by Iranian security forces. Alyar confirmed that 13 fighters associated with his party have perished due to Iranian military actions since the commencement of the war. “The current war has altered conditions significantly within Kurdish regions, especially as Iranian authorities have intensified security measures,” he explained. He also raised concerns over the lack of international military aid, stating that no support has been received from the US, European nations, or Arab countries despite persistent requests.
While US President Donald Trump has had a fluctuating stance on Kurdish roles in the military conflict, sources indicate that US intelligence might be collaborating with Kurdish fighters. It has also been reported that regions along the Iraq-Iran border are under increased attack since the war began. Despite this, skepticism remains about the likelihood of a substantial military initiative aimed at regime change within Iranian Kurdish areas, as opposition fighters caution against potential heavy casualties.
Regional Implications and Future Prospects
The Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government has urged Iranian Kurdish factions to avoid any actions that could jeopardize local security and interests, especially given recent Iranian responses. Various Kurdish groups—boasting thousands of fighters—have traditionally opposed Tehran from their bases in northern Iraq. Nonetheless, Iranian opposition leaders express doubt regarding the US’s genuine intentions to instigate regime change in Iran. Rebaz Sharifi, from the Kurdistan Freedom Party of Iran, remarked that the US seems more focused on diminishing Iranian influence across the Middle East rather than supporting forces aimed at toppling the Iranian regime.
Current military operations against Iranian Kurdish factions have been met with US airstrikes, particularly after attacks blamed on Iranian-linked groups in Iraq. Sharifi estimated that since the onset of the war, his party’s positions have been targeted over 80 times. As the Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government pressures Iranian Kurdish factions to minimize their activities, the risk grows for these groups caught in the crossfire.
Lastly, the overarching question remains: Will this conflict lead to meaningful changes in Tehran’s regime? For many Kurds, both inside Iran and abroad, a regime collapse may present a historic opportunity. However, such a shift could also result in a significant security vacuum, exacerbating instability in the region. As events unfold, the emerging dynamics will be crucial for the Iranian Kurdish community, the Iranian government, and the geopolitical landscape at large.