Israel is on the verge of an election that could shape its fundamental identity. Set for October 27, this pivotal event goes beyond external conflicts or the Palestinian issue; it centers on whether Israel will maintain the liberal democracy envisioned by its founders in 1948 or shift toward a more illiberal governance influenced by Orthodox Judaism.
Netanyahu’s Shift and Its Consequences
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s return to power in 2022 marked a significant rightward turn in Israeli politics. His coalition with far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties aimed to diminish the independence of the judiciary and increase political power for elected officials. This push for political influence echoes trends seen in other illiberal democracies, suggesting that elections could become less free and fair. Additionally, Netanyahu’s administration sought to strengthen the Jewish identity in public life while providing substantial support to West Bank settlers. This included increased government incentives while also granting the Haredi community greater privileges, including controversial exemptions from military service.
As the political landscape evolves, the Netanyahu government has faced accusations of facilitating settler violence against Palestinians in the West Bank. Figures like National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir have transformed law enforcement into a political tool, showcasing a model similar to tactics employed by former U.S. President Donald Trump. While Netanyahu himself presents a more restrained public persona, the rhetoric from his government and social media supporters seeks to undermine both the opposition and various state institutions, diminishing their roles in governance.
The Role of the Judiciary and Democratic Norms
One of Netanyahu’s key initiatives involved a controversial plan to curb the Supreme Court’s authority, presented shortly after the formation of his government. Despite widespread protests and legal challenges, the government continued efforts to reshape judicial independence, culminating in a legislative push that saw partial modifications approved in the Knesset before the ongoing conflict with Hamas erupted on October 7, 2023. If Netanyahu’s coalition remains intact post-election, it threatens the very core of Israeli democracy, potentially unrestrained by political norms.
Currently, millions of Palestinians living in the occupied territories lack the rights afforded to Israeli citizens. While democratic values still exist within Israel, they face increasing pressure. A continued Netanyahu majority could undermine these norms, much like Trump’s approach in the U.S. This election will determine whether Israel maintains its liberal principles or slides further into illiberalism.
Challenges Facing the Opposition
The Israeli parliamentary opposition, consisting of an array of leftist, centrist, and right-wing factions, has struggled to present a unified front against Netanyahu’s agenda. Although these groups generally support judicial integrity and oppose settler violence, they have been unable to coalesce into a potent opposition force. Gadi Eisenkot, a former army chief of staff, has gained traction as a leading candidate for the opposition, appealing to voters with his military background and personal narrative. However, potential weaknesses loom, including whether his rise will translate to sustained support among centrist and moderate right voters.
Furthermore, Eisenkot’s commitment to excluding Arab-led parties from coalitions could hinder his ability to secure a majority in the Knesset. Recent polls suggest that many Israeli voters have already made up their minds, making it difficult for the opposition to draw substantial support from Netanyahu’s bloc. The inability to shift voting patterns could solidify Netanyahu’s position and hinder any meaningful change in Israeli governance.
As the election approaches, fears of electoral violence and intimidation persist, with warnings from President Isaac Herzog about potential misconduct by a government eager to suppress dissent. The landscape looks precarious; with the security situation remaining a priority, the electorate might still endorse Netanyahu despite ongoing threats to democracy.
In summary, the upcoming election symbolizes more than a contest for political power; it represents a critical moment in the continued evolution of Israel’s national identity and democratic values. The outcome could determine whether the nation upholds its foundational principles or charts a new course toward an illiberal future intertwined with sectarian politics.