The burgeoning relationship between Turkey and South Africa can be viewed through various lenses, including two middle powers seeking to diversify trade and navigate the complexities of a multipolar global landscape. However, this perspective merely scratches the surface, overlooking the deeper underlying motivations that unite these two nations.
Legal Cooperation Against Israel
One of the most significant corners of this relationship emerged when Turkey joined South Africa’s genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in 2026. This collaboration underscores a shared commitment to hold Israel accountable for its actions through international legal mechanisms. Since this pivotal moment, actions taken by both governments align closely, strengthening South Africa’s legal framework while working collectively to advance their agenda in The Hague.
This isn’t just a case of two countries opposing Israel; it represents a well-orchestrated diplomatic partnership. Central to this collaboration is Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who’s not merely engaging in virtue signaling but appears to have strategic interests driving this alliance. The rationale behind Turkey’s engagement with South Africa becomes clearer when viewed as part of a broader African strategy developed over the last two decades, which largely transcends Israeli politics.
Turkey’s Growing Influence in Africa
Turkey’s deliberate approach to expanding its influence in Africa has been quite methodical, as evidenced by the explosive growth in its diplomatic presence on the continent—from merely 12 embassies in 2002 to 44 today. Trade with Africa has skyrocketed from around $5.4 billion in 2005 to nearly $41 billion projected by 2025, signaling a robust economic relationship. Additionally, Turkish Airlines has made significant inroads across Africa, landing in numerous cities and facilitating greater connectivity.
These numbers reflect far more than simple trade agreements; they show a comprehensive strategy built on layers of engagement. Turkish initiatives include varying forms of support such as military academies, health infrastructure investment, university scholarships, and training programs aimed at building local capacity. With over 16,000 Somali troops trained at Turkey’s military facility in Mogadishu, the model has revealed how Turkey seeks to combine military presence with civilian capacity building.
The Risk of Military Engagement
Of particular concern to Western observers is Turkey’s shift towards a burgeoning defense export market in Africa. Reports indicate that Turkish drone sales, particularly those from the Baykar company, have reached approximately $1.8 billion in 2024 alone, equipping 18 African countries, including those in the midst of internal turmoil. The emergence of Turkish contractors like SADAT, operating openly within conflict zones, raises alarms about the potential regional destabilization.
The implications of Turkey’s military involvement extend beyond simple arms sales; they suggest a reliable network of local loyalties and relations akin to what has been observed in its domestic policies. This strategic model facilitates a nuanced presence in various nations, positioning Turkey as both a partner and a competitor. This dynamic particularly affects areas like the Sahel, where recent military coups have been observed, and several of these states have previously engaged with Turkish defense exports.
Ultimately, the alliance between Turkey and South Africa is a complex tapestry interwoven with shared interests against Israel but rooted deeply in a broader African strategy. For Turkey, the objective is to expand its influence on the continent, particularly as its competition with Israel continues to evolve. As such, the geopolitical chessboard stretches beyond the confines of traditional alliances and trade balances, moving toward an era where local complexities will increasingly define global interactions.