This week, our focus shifts to the Horn of Africa, where a long-standing conflict in Ethiopia has escalated into open warfare. The circumstances are dire, extending beyond Ethiopia, which is the continent’s second-largest nation in terms of population. Neighboring Eritrea has been drawn into the turmoil, Sudan is grappling with its own civil war, and across the Red Sea, the Iran-supported Houthis are engaged in ongoing hostilities against Saudi Arabia.
The Role of Regional Powers in the Horn of Africa
Complicating matters significantly, several regional powers, including the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, Egypt, and Israel, are competing for influence in the Horn of Africa. This situation intertwines the region with broader geopolitical interests spanning the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean. We have already witnessed these countries engaging in proxy conflicts, using the Horn of Africa as a stage for their rivalries.
One key rivalry to monitor is that between Israel and Turkey. Turkey has made substantial investments in the region, particularly in Somalia, where it has deployed advanced military assets such as F-16s and drones. The nation is also training Somali troops at Camp TUKRSOM, its largest overseas military installation. On the other hand, Somaliland—which seceded from Somalia and has recognition solely from Israel—is urgently seeking military assistance from the Israeli government.
Turkey’s Expanding Influence on the Continent
Turkey’s endeavors extend far beyond Somalia. Its swift growth across Africa is part of a meticulously strategized, multi-faceted approach that has established robust bilateral relationships with numerous African countries. These relationships encompass a wide range of agreements on education, natural resources, military aid, and arms sales. As Turkey continues to bolster its presence, it raises questions about the implications for other nations, particularly those in the Mediterranean and beyond.
The ongoing dynamics in the Horn of Africa underscore the necessity for countries like Greece to remain vigilant. Greece has already taken action by deploying Patriot missile systems in Saudi Arabia to defend against threats posed by the Houthis. Additionally, it is playing an active part in Red Sea security through the EU’s naval mission ASPIDES, aimed at safeguarding international shipping routes. Given the interconnected nature of conflicts stretching from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Horn of Africa, this is a region Greece cannot afford to overlook.
Understanding the Implications for Greece
This week’s discussion features insights from Ambassador Michelle Gavin, Sinan Ciddi, and Professor Asteris Huliaras, who join Thanos Davelis to unpack the complexities of the ongoing conflicts in the Horn of Africa and analyze their significance for Greece. The conversation will delve into how these international dynamics shape not just regional stability but also the geopolitical landscape that Greece must navigate.
Gavin serves as a senior fellow with a focus on African policy studies, while Ciddi directs the Turkey program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Huliaras, a professor specializing in comparative politics and international relations, holds a prominent position at the University of the Peloponnese. The diverse expertise of these guests promises a rich dialogue about the challenges and opportunities that the evolving scenarios present for Greece in a globally interconnected environment.