Türkiye is setting ambitious targets to strengthen its economy. By 2029, the government aims to achieve a $2.2 trillion economic footprint, create 2.1 million new jobs, and bring inflation back to single digits. Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz outlined these goals during a recent press conference at the Presidential Complex in Ankara, emphasizing the government’s strategic direction as part of the 2027–2029 Medium-Term Program (MTP).
Strategic Goals and Economic Projections
Yilmaz revealed that the MTP is a living document, updated annually to align with the nation’s growth objectives. It outlines critical macroeconomic forecasts and policy priorities while also setting the foundation for public spending and budgeting. With a focus on sustainable growth, the government aims to boost production capacity and productivity, steering clear of inflationary pressures. Projected growth rates are set to rise from 3.3% in 2026 to 5% by the end of the plan in 2029. Total factor productivity is also expected to contribute meaningfully, around 1.2 percentage points to the growth in 2026 alone.
The economic outlook includes a national income exceeding $1.8 trillion by 2026, with per-capita income surpassing $20,000 for the first time. Yilmaz noted that by 2029, Türkiye’s nominal GDP is forecasted to reach $2.2 trillion and per-capita income around $25,000. Exports of goods and services are predicted to climb to approximately $450 billion, marking a significant shift in the country’s economic landscape.
Targeting Inflation and Economic Stability
Returning inflation to single digits is another critical goal for the Turkish government. Currently anticipated year-end inflation for 2026 stands at 28.4%, decreasing gradually to 21% in 2027 and 13.5% in 2028. Yilmaz commented on the disruption caused by regional conflicts, which initially drove inflation as high as 75.5% in May 2024. Despite these challenges, he remains optimistic, asserting that as the impact of supply shocks fades, inflation will likely reduce significantly due to a coordinated policy framework.
Higher consumer prices in essentials such as food and fuel have contributed to the inflationary trend, further complicated by geopolitical tensions. The Turkish central bank has indicated that the war’s influence has added about 7 percentage points to the inflation rate. By addressing these challenges effectively, the government aims to foster sustainable growth, social equity, and fair income distribution.
Impact of Global Events and Domestic Reforms
Yilmaz stated that external economic pressures, particularly arising from the conflict in Ukraine, have necessitated adjustments to growth projections. The forecasted growth for Türkiye’s key trade partners has been lowered, reflecting a broader downturn in global economic activity. Additionally, projections for energy prices have escalated, which is expected to influence Türkiye’s trade balance. The anticipated trade deficit has increased due to a revised energy import bill.
In response to these ongoing challenges, Türkiye’s government is pursuing active labor market reforms aiming to generate approximately 700,000 jobs annually. These reforms will prioritize skill development tailored to technological advancements, particularly in sectors like artificial intelligence. Employment initiatives will also support disadvantaged groups, including women and youth.
Sustainable Development and Climate Goals
In a forward-looking initiative, Türkiye is committed to balancing its economic development objectives with environmental sustainability. Hosting COP31 later this year, Türkiye aims to reinforce its goals for a carbon-free economy. It is recognized that investments in green technology not only align with climate aspirations but also position the nation to enhance its economic stability by reducing dependency on fossil fuel imports.
Yilmaz has articulated a vision for integrating green initiatives into the core of Türkiye’s economic strategy. By focusing on both green and digital transformations, the government believes it can achieve significant milestones in economic development while contributing positively to global climate goals.
In summary, Türkiye’s roadmap for the coming years emphasizes economic revival, strategic job creation, and a commitment to sustainability, which together form a comprehensive plan for national growth and stability.